- The NCEP Model predicts the total rainfall up to 45-55 mm in Kandy district on 5 th April to 11 th April.
- Between 28 Mar-3 Apr: highest rainfall of 90 mm was recorded on the 29th in Gampaha and Kegalla districts.
- From 26 Mar-1 Apr: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 28 Mar-3 Apr: up to 14 km/h, Southeasterly winds were experienced by the Northern regions, and speeds less than 11 km/h in the central and southern regions of the island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the Northern and Eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On March 28th Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kegalla and Kandy district up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Kurunegala, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and several regions of Anuradhapura and Gampaha districts up to 20 mm. On the 29th Gampaha and Kegalla districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kalutara, Galle, and Kurunegala districts up to 50 mm; Southern regions of Anuradhapura district up to 40 mm; Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Puttalam, Colombo and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; and Nuwara Eliya several regions of Polonnaruwa and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 30th Kurunegala district and Passara region of Badulla district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalla, Matale, Kandy , Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 31st. On April 1st Kurunegala and Kegalla districts and Medawachchiya region of Anuradhapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Gampaha and several regions of Vavuniya, Badulla and Kandy districts up to 20 mm. On the 2nd Anuradhapura district received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Galle and Matara up to 50 mm; Vavuniya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Hambantota and Ratnapura up to 30 mm; and Kegalla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 3rd Puttalam, Kurunegala, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara and Galle districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Anuradhapura, Matale, Kegalla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Monaragala and Ampara districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 100 mm for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kegalla, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Badulla districts; up to 75 mm for Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Colombo, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm for Vavuniya and Ampara districts. It shows above average rainfall of 50-100 mm for western regions of Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Galle and Matara districts; 25-50 mm for Badulla and Monaragala districts. Below average rainfall of 25-50 mm is shown for Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, and Ampara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During March - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island except for Hambantota district, which received up to 90 mm of below average rainfall. Anuradhapura, Kurunegala and Kandy received up to 150 mm above average rainfall; and many parts of the island received up to 120 mm. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya Kandy and Badulla districts amounted to 270 mm/month; and 180 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~500 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Kandy and Ratnapura districts; up to ~300 mm in Kandy, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya and Matale districts; up to ~200 mm Vavuniya, Mannar, and Matara districts; and up to 150 mm for the rest of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 05th – 11th Apr: Total rainfall up to 45-55 mm in Kandy district; total rainfall up to 35-45 mm in Matale, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Gampaha, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Monaragala and Badulla districts; total rainfall up to 25-35 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Hambantota districts; total rainfall up to 15-25mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; Total rainfall up to Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Jaffna.
From 12th – 18th Apr: Total rainfall up to 65-75 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla and Monaragala districts; total rainfall up to 55-65 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara, Hambantota, Galle and Kalutara districts; total rainfall up to 45-55 in Batticaloa district; total rainfall up to 35-45 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts; total rainfall up to 25-35 mm in Vavuniya district; total rainfall up to 15-25 mm in Mannar, Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
04th Apr: Up to 65 mm rainfall in Matale and Kandy districts; up to 36mm rainfall in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 8 mm rainfall in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; up to 3 mm rainfall in Mannar district.
05th Apr: Up to 65 mm rainfall in Thanamalwila area; up to 36mm rainfall in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts and some areas of Ampara, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 8 mm rainfall in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Kegalle and Gampaha; up to 3 mm rainfall in Kurunegala, Puttalam and Vavuniya districts.
Seasonal Prediction: April to June: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 60-70% likelihood in the western coastal regions and 70-80% likelihood in the rest of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : March 16, 2017
During mid-March 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was mainly in the ENSO-neutral range, but warmer than average SST was observed in the eastern one-third of the basin. Although most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific are now approximately ENSO-neutral, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall and winds in the central and western tropical Pacific continues to suggest a borderline La Niña condition. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs are likely to remain neutral through spring 2017, with an increasing chance for El Niño development during summer or fall.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and eastern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance the rainfall in the following 10 days.
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