Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (24 July 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 50 mm in Colombo, Galle, Kalutara, Kandy, Matara, Matale,Badulla, Ratnapura,Kegalle,Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Tincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts during 22nd -28th June.

•   Between 16th June - 22nd  July: up to 90 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Nuwara Eliya district on 18th July.

•   From 2nd- 9th June: up to 8 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  1.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th July	Up to 70 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 40 mm in Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; up to 20mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Kandy; up to 15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Trincomalee district.
17th July	Up to 15 mm in Hambantota, Galle, Matara, Monaragala, Badulla, Ratnapura and Ampara districts; and up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.
18th July	Up to 90 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to 80 mm in Kandy district; and up to 70 mm in Badulla and Kegalle, districts; up to 60 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Matale and Monaragala districts; up to 40 mm in Puttalam district; up to 30 mm in Matara, Hambantota, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Ampara, Hambantota and Mullaitivu districts; and up to 10 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts.
19th July	Up to 40 mm in Badulla, Puttalam, Gampaha and Kurunegala districts; up to 30 mm in Ampara, and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in Colombo, Kegalle, Katutara, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 15 mm in Galle, Mannar and Anuradhapura districts; up to 10 mm in Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts.
20th July	Up to 40 mm in Jaffna district; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 15 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Mannar, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
21st July	Up to 2.5 mm in Monaragala and Ampara Districts.
22nd July	Up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Ampara and Batticoloa districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75 – 100 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Puttalam, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Ampara and Kurunegala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee districts.

Above rainfall average up to 50-100 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Kandy districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Galle, Matara and Kalutara districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During June – Above average rainfall conditions up to 6 mm were experienced by Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 4 mm in Mannar, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts and below average rainfall conditions upto 2 mm were experienced by Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 23^rd July – 29^th July: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts; up to 65 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kegalle, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 55 mm in Gampaha and Kandy districts; up to 45 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Ampara districts; up to 35 in Matale, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; and upto 25 mm in Anuradhapura district.

From 30^th July – 05^th August: Total rainfall up to 65 mm in Kalutara, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Ratnpura, Hambantota districts; up to 55 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Jaffna, Trincomalee and Anuradhapura districts; up to 45 mm in Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Mannar, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; and up to 35 mm in Puttalam, Batticaloa districts. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 23^rd July – 28^th July: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Monaragla, Badulla, Matale, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance rainfall during 22^nd July - 10^th August and shall remain neutral during 11^th – 15^th August.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 24, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early June, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.