Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (3 July 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Jaffna and Mullaitivu districts during 25th - 30th June. 

•  Between 24th - 30th  June: up to 90 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Anuradhapura, Vavuniya and Matale districts on 24th June

•  From 23rd- 29th June: up to 17 km/h, northwessterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•  1.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
24th June	Up to 90mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Matale districts; up to 80mm in Polonnaruwa and Kurunegala districts; up to 70mm in Kandy district; up to 60mm in Mannar, Ampara and Badulla districts; up to 50mm in Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 40 mm in Puttalam and Trincomalee districts; up to 30mm in Mulativu, Kilinochchi, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya and Batticaloa districts; up to 20mm in Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 10mm in Jaffna district.
25th June	Up to 80 mm in Anuradhapura, Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Monaragala district; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Ampara districts; and up to 40 mm in Mannar, Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kalutara, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Kilinochchi and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna district.
26th June	Up to 15 mm in Galle district; up to 10 mm in Ampara district; up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to  5 mm in Puttalam, Kandy, Kurunegala and Matale districts.
27th June	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts.
28th June	Up to 2 mm in Mullaitivu district.
29th June	Up to 50 mm in Vavuniya district; up to 40 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 20 mm in Trincomalee, Mullaitivu, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 15 mm in Mannar, Colombo, Kalutara, Kandy and Monaragala districts; and up to 10 mm in Kilinochchi, Polonnaruwa,  Matale, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Ampara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.
30th June	Up to 15 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 10 mm in Kalutara,Ratnapura, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 5 mm in Colombo, Ampara, Matale, Anuradhapura and Kilinochchi districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75 – 100 mm in Anuradhapura, Vavuniya and Matale districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kandy, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Monaragala, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Hambantota districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Gampaha, Colombo, Puttalam, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Ampara and Jaffna districts.

Above rainfall average up to 50-100 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Hambantota, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Puttalam, Galle, Matara, Kegalle and Batticaloa districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Gampaha, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

During June – Above average rainfall conditions up to 10 mm were experienced by Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 6 mm in Mannar, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Ampara, Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Kandy districts; and up to 4 mm in  Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Colombo, Gampaha,  Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura. Below average rainfall conditions down to 4 mm were experienced by Galle and Matara districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 1^st July – 7^th July: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; up to 45 mm in Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle, Galle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and Badulla districts; up to 35 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Matara, Kurunegala, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota districts; and up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts.

From 8^th July – 14^th July: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 25 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Matale, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ampara  and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 15 mm in Anuradhapura, Monaragala, Batticaloa, Matara and Trincomalee districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 29^th June – 4^th July: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Galle district; up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO is in the neutral phase and shall enhance the rainfall in the next 15 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 24, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central and southeast Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in late June, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.