Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (17 July 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•   The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 100 mm in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts during 16th - 21st July. 

   •  Between 8th - 9th  July: up to 110 mm of rainfall was recorded in Anuradhapura,  and Polonnaruwa districts on 8th and 9th July.

•  From 8th- 14th July: up to 15 km/h, northwessterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•  1.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
8th July	Up to 110 mm in Anuradhapura district, up to 100 mm in Matale, district; up to 90 mm in Polonnaruwa district; up to 80 mm in Vavuniya district; up to 40 mm in Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 30 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; and up to 20 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Mannar, Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts
9th July	Up to 110 mm in Polonnaruwa district; up to 100 mm in Matale district; up to 90 mm in Ampara district; up to 80 mm in Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Badulla and Puttalam districts; up to 50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, , Kandy, Ratnapura, Monaragala, and Trincomalee districts; up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
10th July	Up to 100 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 90 mm in Vavuniya district; up to 80 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Trincomalee and Badulla districts; up to 40 mm in Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa and Mannar districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kalutara, Kandy and Kegalle districts; and up to 15 mm in the rest of the island except Jaffna.
11th July	Up to 40 mm in Mullaitivu, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Colombo and Kalutara districts; up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts; up to 15 mm in Galle, Matara, Hambantota and Jaffna districts; up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Matale and Mannar districts.
12th July	Up to 20 mm in Kalutara district; up to 15 mm in Colombo, Ratnapura and Galle district; up to 10 mm in Gampaha, Batticaloa and Kegalle districts; and up to 5 mm in Matara, Monaragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Ampara and Trincomalee districts.
13th July	Up to 40 mm in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee and Mullaitivu districts; up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Jaffna, Galle, Puttalam and Ratnapura districts; up to 10 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Matara, Hambantota and Kalutara districts; and up to 5 mm in the rest of the island.
14th July	Up to 30 mm in Hambantota and Monaragala districts; up to 20 mm in Matara district; up to 10 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu and Galle districts; and up to 5 mm in Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar, Kilinochchi, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75 – 100 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Monaragala, Ampara and Matale districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Mannar, Mullaitivu and Kurunegala, Badulla districts; up to 25 -50 mm in the rest of the island while up to 10 – 25 mm in Batticaloa and Jaffna districts. 

Above rainfall average up to 50-100 in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Vavuniya and Monaragala districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Badulla, Kandy, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Jaffna districts.

 

Monthly Monitoring: 

During June – Above average rainfall conditions up to 6 mm were experienced by Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 4 mm in Mannar, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts and below average rainfall conditions up to 2 mm were experienced by Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts.

 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From16^th June – 22^nd July: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Galle and Matara districts; up to 75 mm in Hambantota and Ratnapura districts; up to 65 mm in Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 55 mm in Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Colombo districts; up to 45 mm in Kandy and Gampaha districts; up to 35 mm in Kurunegala and Matale districts; and up to 25 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Vavuniya districts.

From 23^rd – 29^th July: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to 45 mm in Gampaha, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 35 mm in Monaragala, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kandy and Matale districts; and up to 25 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Ampara, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 16^th – 21^st July: Total rainfall up to 100 mm in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 75 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Matara districts, up to 50 mm in rest of the island while up to 25 mm in Mannar district. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall enhance the rainfall during the next 10 days and shall slightly enhance the rainfall during the following 5 days. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 19, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific are in the cool-neutral range in early July, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models for fall and winter slightly exceed the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions. The official CPC/IRI outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with a 55% chance of La Niña for fall and 50% chance for continuing through winter. A La Niña watch is now posted.

Indian Ocean State

1.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.