Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 July 2020)

 

                        Highlights                             

•    The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm in Badulla and Nuwara Eliya districts during 8th - 13th June. 

•    Between 30th June - 6th  July: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Kalutara district on 6th July.

•    From 2nd- 9th June: up to 15 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•    1 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
30th June	Up to 15 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 10 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Trincomalee districts; and up to 5 mm in Colombo, Ampara, Matale, Anuradhapura and Kilinochchi districts.
1st July	Up to 10 mm in Hambantota district.
2nd July	Up to 15 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kilinochchi, Jaffna, Polonnaruwa, Kalutara,  Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Batticaloa districts; and up to 5 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Matale, Colombo, Kegalle, Gampaha and  Hambantota districts.
3rd July	Up to 20 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Ampara, and Batticaloa districts; up to 15 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Badulla, Matale, Mannar and Matara districts; and up to 10 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Jaffna, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts.
4th July	Up to 20 mm in Trincoalee, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya and Puttalam districts; up to 15 mm in Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Mullaitivu districts; up to 10 mm in Mannar, Kilinochchi, Jaffna, Gampaha, Matale, Ampara, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Kegalle districts; and up to 5 mm in Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.
5th July	Up to 5 mm in Vavuniya district.
6th July	Up to 30 mm in Kalutara district; up to 10 mm in Colombo, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 5 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Badulla and Nuwara Eliya disticts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10 – 25 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; and up to 5 – 10 mm in Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Ampara, Monaragala, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee and Gampaha districts.

Below rainfall average up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Kandy districts; and up to 10 – 25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Ampara, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.

Monthly Monitoring: 

During June – Above average rainfall conditions up to 6 mm were experienced by Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts; up to 4 mm in Mannar, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa, Monaragala and Hambantota districts and below average rainfall conditions upto 2 mm were experienced by Galle, Matara and Ratnapura districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^nd July – 15^th July: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 25 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Matale, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ampara and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 15 mm in Anuradhapura, Monaragala, Batticaloa, Matara and Trincomalee districts.

From 16^th July – 22^nd July: Total rainfall up to 55 mm in Matara, Ratnpura, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Colombo districts; up to 45 mm in Gampaha, Hambantota, Badulla, Kandy, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 35 mm in Kandy, Matale, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Puttalam districts; and up to 25 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Jaffna districts. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 8^th July – 13^th July: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 50 mm in Galle, Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Matale, Monaragala, Ampara, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance rainfall during 9^th - 18^th July and shall slightly enhance rainfall during 19^th - 23^rd July.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: June 24, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific decreased to near the La Niña threshold in early June, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook is somewhat similar to these model forecasts, calling for a likely continuation of ENSO-neutral in summer, with approximately equal chances of ENSO-neutral or La Niña for fall and winter. 

Indian Ocean State

1 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.