- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 105 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 30 Jan – 5 Feb.
- Between 23 - 29 Jan: up to 20 mm of rainfall was recorded in Badulla district on the 25th.
- From 20 – 26 Jan: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 10-15 OC and most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC
- From 22 - 28 Jan: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period January 23rd-24th. On the 25th, Badulla district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; Monaragala , Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts up to 15 mm; and Ampara, Matale and Kandy districts up to 5 mm. On the 26th, Ratnapura, Monaragala and Hambantota districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. On the 27th, Matara, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on 28th and 29th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Badulla district; up to 5-10 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 2-5 mm in Hambantota and Ampara districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ratnapura and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee and Ampara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 150 mm most parts of the island. Eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts experienced above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and south western coastal regions of Galle district up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in for the rest of the island.
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 30th Jan – 5th Feb: Total rainfall up to 105 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 85-95 mm in Monaragala district; up to 75-85 mm in Polonnaruwa and Badulla districts; up to 55-65 mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliiya districts; up to 45-55 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Hambantota and Ratnapura districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Vavuniya, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle and Matara districts.
From 6th – 12th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Batticaloa, Ampara, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.IMD WRF Model Forecast:
1st Feb: Up to 10 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura district.
2nd Feb: No Rainfall.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 30th Jan – 4th Feb: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Mulaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts and up to 25 mm in rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 19, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average, but less strongly so. However, key atmospheric variables continued to show mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.