- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 23 – 29 Jan.
- Between 15 - 22 Jan: up to 20 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Badulla and Monaragala districts on the 15th.
- From 13 – 19 Jan: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 0-5 OC and western and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC
- From 15 - 21 Jan: up to 21 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On January 15th, Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Ampara and Hambantota districts up to 10 mm. On the 16th, Kalutara, Ratnapura. Galle and Matara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Monaragala district up to 5 mm. On the 17th, Ampara and Hambantota districts received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 18th and 19th. On the 20th, Trincomalee district received up to 15 mm of rainfall; and Kilinochchi, Jaffna and Batticaloa districts up to 5 mm. On the 21st, Jaffna district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 22nd.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 5-10 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and Kalutara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 150 mm most parts of the island. Eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts experienced above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and south western coastal regions of Galle district up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in for the rest of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 23rd – 29th Jan: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 5-15 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.
From 30th Jan – 5th Feb: No Rainfall.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 25th Jan: No Rainfall.
26th Jan: Up to 40 mm of rainfall in Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy and Ratnapura districts; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Galle districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
Not Available.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 9, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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