Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 17, January 2019

Highlights:

•   The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 35 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 16 – 22 Jan.
•   Between 9 - 14 Jan: up to 90 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Ampara and Batticaloa districts on the 13th.
•   From 6 – 12 Jan: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 10-15  ^OC and western and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35  ^OC
•  From 8 - 14 Jan: up to 28 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the southern parts of the island.
•   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring: On January 9th, Galle and Matara districts received up to 15 mm of rainfall; and Hambantota district up to 10 mm.  On the 10th, Kalutara, Ratnapura. Galle and Matara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall; and Monaragala district up to 5 mm. On the 11th, Kalutara, Ratnapura. Galle, Matara, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; Monaragala and Hambantota district up to 10 mm. On the 12th, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts up to 30 mm; and Vavuniya and Monaragala district up to 20 mm. On the 13th, Batticaloa and Ampara districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Trincomalee districts up to 30 mm; and Anuradhapura, Gampaha and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 14th, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya and Colombo districts up to 15 mm. 

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara district; up to 50-75 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Monaragala and Badulla districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Matara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Colombo and Hambantota districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Batticaloa and Ampara districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kegalle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in rest of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 150 mm most parts of the island. Eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts experienced above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and south western coastal regions of Galle district up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in for the rest of the island. 

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:

From 16th – 22nd Jan: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 15-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

From 23rd – 29th Jan: Total rainfall up to 75 mm Batticaloa, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 55 – 65 mm in Badulla and Hambantota districts; up to 45-55 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; and up to 35-45 mm in Kegalle, Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Galle and Matara districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

18th Jan: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura districts; up to 40 mm in Galle district; and up to 10 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.

19th Jan: No Rainfall.

IRI Weekly forecast:
Not Available.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 9, 2018

El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days; shall not have an impact on the rainfall in the following 5 days; and shall suppress in the next 5 days.