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Thursday, January 3, 2019

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 3, January 2019


  •   The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts dry weather conditions over the island during 2 – 8 Jan.
  •   Between 26 Dec - 1 Jan: up to 90 mm of rainfall was recorded in Ratnapura district on the 27th. 
  •   From 23 – 29 Dec: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 10-15  OC and western and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35  OC
  •  From 25 - 31 Dec: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  •   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Weekly Monitoring: On December 26th, Trincomalee district received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Mannar, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Matale and Badulla districts up to 50 mm; Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Ampara and Monaragla districts up to 30 mm; Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the country up to 10 mm.  On the 27th, Ratnapura district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kalutara district received up to 60 mm; Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya and Colombo districts up to 50 mm; Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 30 mm; and Gampaha and Kandy districts up to 20 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during December 28th to January 1st.  

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 75-100 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Matara and Hambantota districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ratnapura district; up to 25-50 mm in Kalutara district and southern regions of Trincomalee district; and up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalle, Colombo and Matara districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Batticaloa, Ampara and Jaffna districts and northern regions of Trincomalee district; and up to 10-25 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa and Badulla districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During December - below average rainfall conditions up to 210 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; and up to 150 mm most parts of the island. Eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts experienced above average rainfall up to 150 mm; and south western coastal regions of Galle district up to 90 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in for the rest of the island. 


14-day prediction:
From 2nd – 8th Jan: No Rainfall.

From 9th – 15th Jan: Total rainfall up to 25 mm Batticaloa, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 15 mm in Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo. Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

4th Jan: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura district; and up to 20 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.

5th Jan: No Rainfall.

IRI Weekly forecast:
Not Available.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : December 19, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 96% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and 70% during Mar-May 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing as a weak event through spring and even into summer.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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