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Thursday, December 27, 2018

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 27, December 2018


  •   The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall up to 75 mm in the central parts of the island during 24 – 29 Dec.
  •   Between 19 - 23 Dec: up to 140 mm of rainfall was recorded in Jaffna district on the 22nd. 
  •   From 16 – 22 Dec: entire island recorded a minimum temperature between 20-25  OC and a maximum temperature between 30-35  OC
  •  From 18 - 24 Dec: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
  •   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on December 19th. On the 20th, coastal regions of Batticaloa district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts up to 20 mm.  On the 21st, Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Mannar, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts received up to 30 mm; Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Hambantota, Galle and Matara districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the island up to 10 mm. On the 22nd, Jaffna district received up to 140 mm rainfall; Kurunegala, Matale and Kandy districts up to 50 mm; Anuradhapura and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm. On the 23rd, Mannar, Galle and western regions of Anuradhapura district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya and Kalutara districts up to 10 mm. 

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 75-100 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Kegalle districts; up to 25-50 mm in Jaffna. Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in rest of the island. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Colombo district; up to 25-50 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle and Kalutara districts; and up to 10-25 nn in Mannar district. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Matara, Hambantota, Badulla, Monaragala and Matale districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During November - above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by Gampaha district and southern regions of Kurunegala and western regions of Kegalle districts; and up to 60 mm in Batticaloa district and several regions of Jaffna, Trincomalee and Ampara districts. Badulla and Monaragala districts experienced below average rainfall up to 360 mm; Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 240 mm; and most parts of the island up to 180 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 500 mm of total rainfall in Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo and Kegalle districts; and up to 300 mm in for the rest of the island. 


14-day prediction:
From 26th Dec - 1st Jan: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.

From 2nd – 8th Jan: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 15 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast: 

28th Dec: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Ratnapura and Badulla districts; and up to 80 mm in Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.

29th Dec: No Rainfall.

IRI Weekly forecast:
From 24 – 29 Dec: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, and Ratnapura districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : December 19, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 96% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and 70% during Mar-May 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing as a weak event through spring and even into summer.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

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