- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts total rainfall up to 75 mm in northern and central parts of the island during 19 – 24 Dec.
- Between 11 - 18 Dec: up to 30 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa district on the 13th and in Trincomalee district on the 14th.
- From 9 – 15 Dec: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 10-15 OC and eastern and southern parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC
- From 11 - 16 Dec: up to 20 km/h, northerly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Weekly Monitoring: On December 11th, several regions of Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Kurunegala and Kandy districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 12th, coastal regions of Batticaloa district received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 13th, Batticaloa district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Polonnaruwa, Matale, Badulla and Ampara districts up to 10 mm. On the 14th, Trincomalee district received up to 30 mm rainfall; Mullaitivu, Batticaloa and Polonnaruwa districts up to 20 mm; Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts up to 15 mm; and Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts up to 10 mm. On the 15th, several regions of Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Batticaloa districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 16th, eastern regions of Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 17th and 18th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 10-25 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 5-10 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Badulla, Batticaloa and Ampara districts. Below average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50-100 mm in rest of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During November - above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by Gampaha district and southern regions of Kurunegala and western regions of Kegalle districts; and up to 60 mm in Batticaloa district and several regions of Jaffna, Trincomalee and Ampara districts. Badulla and Monaragala districts experienced below average rainfall up to 360 mm; Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 240 mm; and most parts of the island up to 180 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 500 mm of total rainfall in Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo and Kegalle districts; and up to 300 mm in for the rest of the island.
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 19th - 25th Dec: Total rainfall up to 45 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Mannar districts; up to 25-35 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 15-25 mm in Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle and Matale districts.
From 26th Dec - 1st Jan: Total rainfall up to 15 mm in Gampaha and Ampara districts.IMD WRF Model Forecast:
21st Dec: Up to 40 mm of rainfall in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; and up to 10 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Anuradhapura districts.
22nd Dec: Up to 160 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ampara, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 80 mm in Trincomalee, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaga, Kegalle, and Galle districts; and up to 10 mm in rest of the island.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 19 – 24 Dec: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : December 19, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the November average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, most atmospheric variables continued to show ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 96% chance of El Niño prevailing during winter, and 70% during Mar-May 2019. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing El Niño-level SSTs, most likely weak to moderate in strength, continuing as a weak event through spring and even into summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.