- The IRI weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 15 mm of total rainfall in Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts during 20 – 26 Feb.
- Between 13 - 18 Feb: up to 70 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura district on the 16th.
- From 12 – 18 Feb: up to 22 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the southern half of the island.
- 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on February 13th. On the 14th, Gampaha and Colombo districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kegalle, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts up to 40 mm; and Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 15th, Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala, Kegalle, and Kalutara districts up to 30 mm; and Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 16th, Ratnapura district up to 70 mm of rainfall; Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 50 mm; Kandy, Galle and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Kurunegala, Matale, Gampaha and Colombo districts up to 20 mm. On the 17th, Monaragala and Hambantota districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Badulla and Matara districts up to 20 mm. On the 18th, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Monaragala districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 50-75 mm in KIegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Matara and Galle districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala, kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam, Matale and Ampara districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura and Monaragala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Badulla, Ampara and Gampaha districts. Below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Batticaloa district.
Monthly Monitoring: During January - below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 150 mm rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 50 mm in for the most parts of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 20th – 26th Feb: Total rainfall up to 15 mm Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts.
From 27th Feb – 5th Mar: Tot Total rainfall up to 25 mm Colombo, Ratnapura and Matara districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 21st Feb: No Rainfall.
22nd Feb: No Rainfall.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 20th – 25th Feb: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in the entire island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 19, 2018
SSTs in the tropical Pacific cooled to a borderline El Niño level in January and early February, while subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average. However, some atmospheric patterns of El Niño that had been lacking, finally developed in late January and February. Collective forecasts of models show a return to weak El Niño-level SSTs into summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook, now carrying an El Niño advisory, calls for a 65% chance of El Niño prevailing during Feb-Apr, decreasing to 50% for Apr-Jun.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.
No comments:
Post a Comment