- The NCEP weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 35 mm of total rainfall in Galle, Matara and Ampara during 6 – 12 Feb.
- Between 30 Jan - 4 Feb: up to 90 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Colombo, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts on the 4th.
- From 27 Jan – 2 Feb: Nuwara Eliya district recorded a minimum temperature between 10-15 OC and most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC
- From 22 - 28 Jan: up to 28 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
Download Full Report
Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On January 30th, Batticaloa district received up to 5 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during the period January 31st – February 1st. On the 2nd, Monaragala district received up to 10 mm of rainfall; Ratnapura, Matara, Hambantota and Trincomalee districts up to 5 mm. On the 3rd, Matale and Polonnaruwa districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Mullaitivu, Kalutara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 4th, Colombo, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts up to 60 mm; Puttalam, Gampaha and Kalutara districts up to 50 mm; Mannar, Ratnapura, Badulla and Ampara districts up to 30 mm; and Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Matale, Kandy, Monaragala, Hambantota, Kegalle and Galle districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Mullaitivu and Trincomalee districts; up to 50-75 mm in Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara and Gampaha districts; up to 25-50 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Kandy districts; and up to 10-25 mm in rest of the island. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm in Vavuniya, northern regions of Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu and Gampaha districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Colombo and Galle districts. Below average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Kurunegala, Kandy, Monaragala, Ampara and southern regions of Anuradhapura districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Hambantota districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During January - below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 150 mm rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 50 mm in for the most parts of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 6th – 12th Feb: Total rainfall up to 35 mm Galle, Matara and Ampara districts; up to 15-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Gampaha districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.
From 13th – 19th Feb: Tot Total rainfall up to 45 mm Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 25-35 mm in Galle, Matara and Monaragala districts; up to 15-25 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Kegalle and Gampaha districts; and up to 5-15 mm in most parts of the island.
IMD WRF Model Forecast: 8th Feb: Up to 80 mm of rainfall in Kegalle district; up to 40 mm in Nuwara Eliya district; up to 20 mm in Gampaha district; and up to 10 mm in Colombo, Kalutara, Kandy and Matara districts.
9th Feb: Up to 160 mm of rainfall in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle and Colombo districts; up to 40 mm in Kalutara and Badulla districts; up to 20 mm in Ratnapura district; and up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Kandy and Monaragala districts.
IRI Weekly forecast:
From 6th – 11th Feb: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts and up to 25 mm in rest of the island.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 19, 2018
El Niño-level SSTs continued to be observed in the December average, and the subsurface waters continued to be warmer than average, but less strongly so. However, key atmospheric variables continued to show mainly ENSO-neutral patterns. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a 82% chance of El Niño prevailing during Jan-Mar, and 66% during Mar-May. An El Niño watch is in effect. The most recent forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively show continuing weak El Niño-level SSTs through late spring.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
No comments:
Post a Comment