- The WRF model predicts up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kegalla district on the 30th of June.
- Between 21-27 Jun: Rainfall up to 50 mm was recorded in Kegalla district on the 27th.
- From 18-24 Jun: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Northern and Eastern coastal regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 20-26 Jun: up to 54 km/h, North-Westerly winds were experienced by the whole island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during June 21st-23rd. On June 24th, Mawathagama region in Kurunegala district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 25th Kurunegala, Kegalla, Gampaha, Galle and Matara districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and most Southern and Central parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 26th Puttalam district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 27th Kegalla district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Matale, Kandy, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; and Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya and Kalutara districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 50-75 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalla districts; up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts. It shows above average rainfall up to 50 mm Kurunegala and Kegalla districts; up to 10-25 mm in Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale and Gampaha districts; and below average rainfall up to 10-25 mm in Ampara, Monaragala, Hambantota, Matara and Galle districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During May - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island except for Batticaloa, Ampara and Jaffna districts. Ratnapura district received up to 450 mm above average rainfall; and Kegalla, Kalutara, Matara and Galle districts received up to 360 mm; Nuwara Eliya district up to 240 mm and many parts of the island up to 120 mm. Monthly total rainfall for Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts amounted to 540 mm; up to 420 mm for Kegalla district; and 360 mm for Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Gampaha districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~1000 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to ~750 mm in Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to ~500 mm Kurunegala, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 28th Jun– 4th Jul: Total rainfall between 55-65 mm in Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; between 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
From 5th – 11th Jul: Total rainfall between 55-65 mm in Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; between 15-25 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
29th Jun: Up to 3 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalla and Colombo districts.
30th Jun: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Kegalla district; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle districts.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : June 29, 2017
In mid-June 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs not far from the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer, with chances for El Niño development rising to about 40-45% during fall and early winter.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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