- The WRF model predicts up to 36 mm of rainfall in Western regions of the country on 7th and 8th of July.
- Between 27 Jun 3 Jul: Rainfall up to 50 mm was recorded in Kegalla district on the 27th.
- From 25 Jun- 1 Jul: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Northern and Eastern regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 26 Jun- 2 Jul: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the whole island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
Download Full Report
Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On June 27th, Kegalla district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya and Kalutara districts 20 mm. On the 28th Gampaha district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during June 29th- July 1st. On July 2nd adjacent Northeastern sea received up to 60 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 3rd.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 50-75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Kegalla districts; up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Ampara, Kandy, Badulla, Kalutara and Galle districts. It shows above average rainfall up to 50 mm Puttalam district; up to 10-25 mm in Matale, Kurunegala and Kegalla districts; and below average rainfall up to and 25-50 mm in Galle district and 10-25 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During June - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island except for northern regions of Monaragala and adjacent regions of Ampara district. Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 240 mm below average rainfall; and Colombo and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 150 mm; and most parts of the island up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to ~150 mm Badulla district; and up to ~100 mm Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Matale and Matara districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 4th – 10th Jul: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Kegalla district; between 15-25 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara; between 5-15 mm in Puttalam, Matale, Kandy and Badulla districts.
From 11th – 17th Jul: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; 25-35 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts, 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Batticaloa, Badulla, Ampara and Monaragala districts; 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Hambantota districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
7th Jul: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 3 mm of rainfall in Mannar, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts.
8th Jul: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 3 mm of rainfall in Mannar, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : June 15, 2017
In mid-June 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs not far from the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer, with chances for El Niño development rising to about 40-45% during fall and early winter.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall not have a significant impact on the following 5 days.
No comments:
Post a Comment