- The WRF model predicts up to 36 mm of rainfall in Western regions of the country on 14th and 15th of July.
- Between 5- 11 Jul: Rainfall up to 50 mm was recorded in Batticaloa district on the 8th.
- From 2-8 Jul: minimum temperature of 20 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Northern and Eastern regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 4-10 Jul: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the central and southern regions of the island; and up to 36 km/h winds in the northern region.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On July 5th, Trincomalee district received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and several regions of Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 6th. On the 7th Galle, Kalutara and Monaragala districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On July 8th Batticaloa district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts up to 20 mm; and rest of the island up to 10 mm. On the 9th Batticaloa, Ampara, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala and Kalutara districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Kurunegala, Kegalla, Kandy, Gampaha, Galle and polonnaruwa districts received up to 20 mm. On the 10th several regions of Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island on the 11th.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 50-75 mm in Ratnapura and Batticaloa districts; up to 25-50 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts. It shows above average rainfall up to 50 mm Ratnapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 10-25 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts; and below average rainfall up to and 10-25 mm in Colombo district.
Monthly Monitoring: During June - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island except for northern regions of Monaragala and adjacent regions of Ampara district. Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts received up to 240 mm below average rainfall; and Colombo and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 150 mm; and most parts of the island up to 120 mm. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to ~150 mm Badulla district; and up to ~100 mm Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kegalla, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Matale and Matara districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 12th – 18th Jul: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Kegalla, Ratnapura, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and between 15-25 mm in Jaffna and Mullaitivu districts.
From 19th – 25th Jul: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; and 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
14th Jul: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 8 mm of rainfall in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
15th Jul: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 8 mm of rainfall in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Matara, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : June 15, 2017
In mid-June 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with SSTs not far from the El Niño threshold in the east-central tropical Pacific but the atmosphere maintaining ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer, with chances for El Niño development rising to about 40-45% during fall and early winter.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall suppress the rainfall in the following 5 days.
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