- The WRF model predicts up to 36 mm of rainfall in Kegalla district on the 9th of June.
- Between 31 May-5 Jun: Rainfall up to 90 mm was recorded in Ampara and Monaragala districts on the 5th.
- From 28 May- 3 Jun: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while Northern and Eastern coastal regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 29 May- 4 Jun: up to 72 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the southern regions; and up to 36 km/ in the northern and central regions of the island.
- 0.5 OCC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the western and southern seas of Sri Lanka.
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Weekly Monitoring: On May 31st, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kalutara districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall; and most southwestern regions of the island up to 10 mm. No significant rainfalls were recorded on June 1st. On the 2nd Giriulla region in Kurunegala district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Gampaha and Colombo districts up to 40 mm; Kalutara, Ratnapura and Kegalla district received up to 30 mm; and Nuwara Eliya and Galle districts up to 20 mm. On the 3rd Kalutara and Ratnapura and Giriulla of Kurunegala districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Kegalla, Gampaha and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm. On the 4th Kalutara district received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 5th Ampara and Monaragala district received up to 90 mm; Kegalla, Ratnapura and Badulla districts up to 40 mm; Kegalla and Nuwara Eliya districts received up to 30 mm; and Colombo, Kalutara, Kandy and Batticaloa districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 200-300 mm in Ratnapura, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 150-200 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalla and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 100-150 mm Kandy, Badulla, Galle and Matara districts. It shows above average rainfall more than 100 mm for Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During May - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island except for Batticaloa, Ampara and Jaffna districts. Ratnapura district received up to 450 mm above average rainfall; and Kegalla, Kalutara, Matara and Galle districts received up to 360 mm; Nuwara Eliya district up to 240 mm and many parts of the island up to 120 mm. Monthly total rainfall for Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts amounted to 540 mm; up to 420 mm for Kegalla district; and 360 mm for Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Gampaha districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~1000 mm of total rainfall in Ratnapura district; up to ~750 mm in Kegalla, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to ~500 mm Kurunegala, Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; up to 300 mm in Puttalam, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and up to 200 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts.
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 6th – 12th Jun: Total rainfall between 135-145 mm in Kegalle district; between 115-125 mm in Gampaha, Ratnapura, Colombo and Galle districts; between 95-105 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; between 45-55 mm in Matale and Badulla districts; 35-45 mm in Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; between 25-35 mm in Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; between 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu and Ampara districts.
From 13th – 19th Jun: Total rainfall between 115-125 in Kegalle district; between 105-115 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts; between 95-105 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 45-55 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Badulla districts; between 25-35 mm in Northern Province and Puttalam, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
10th Jun: Up to 36 mm of rainfall in Kandy, Kurunegala and Kegalla district; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 3 mm of rainfall in Anuradhapura, Matale and Matara districts.
11th Jun: Up to 8 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 3 mm of rainfall in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Kandy, Kegalla, Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle districts.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : May 18, 2017
By mid-May 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Niño into the summer and fall of 2017.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 0C below average sea surface temperature was observed in the western and southern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall suppress the rainfall for the following 10 days.