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Thursday, June 1, 2017

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 1, June 2017

Highlights:

  •  The WRF model predicts total rainfall between 115-125 mm in Kegalle district from 31st May to 6th June.  
  •   Between 24-30 May: Rainfall more than 240 mm was recorded in Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts on the 24th and also on the 25th in Ratnapura district.
  •   From 21-27 May: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while eastern and northeastern regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
  •   From 23-29 May: up to 54 km/h, northwesterly winds were experienced by the southern and central regions; and up to 36 km/ in the northern regions of the island.
  •   Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Summary

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:  On May 24th, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts received more than 240 mm of rainfall; Kalutara district up to 220 mm; Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota and Kegalla districts up to 90 mm; Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya and Kurunegala districts up to 80 mm; Kandy, Trincomalee and Puttalam district up to 60 mm; Vavuniya, , Matale, and Monaragala districts up to 50 mm; Polonnaruwa district up to 40 mm; Mannar, Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Ampara and Badulla districts up to 30 mm; and adjacent southwestern sea of the island up to 170 mm. On the 25th Ratnapura district received more than 240 mm of rainfall; Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 170 mm; Kegalla, Hambantota and Monaragala districts up to 120 mm; Badulla, Kandy and Gampaha districts up to 90 mm; Ampara and Kurunegala districts up to 40 mm; Puttalam district up to 30 mm; and Matale district up to 20 mm. On the 26th Kalutara and Ratnapura districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalla, Galle and Matara districts up to 40 mm; Nuwara Eliya district received up to 30 mm; and Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota and several regions of Puttalam and Kurunegala districts up to 20 mm. Up to 10 mm of rainfall was recorded in several parts of Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts on the 27th. On the 28th Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara districts received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kegalla, and Ratnapura districts up to 40 mm; and Nuwara Eliya, Kandy and several regions of Puttalam and Kurunegala districts up to 20 mm. On the 29th Ratnapura district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Kalutara district up to 70 mm; Nuwara Eliya and Kurunegala districts up to 50 mm; Galle district up to 40 mm; Gampaha, Colombo, Matara, Kandy and several regions of the Matale and Polonnaruwa districts up to 30 mm; and Puttalam, Ampara, Monaragala and Hambantota districts up to 20 mm. On the 30th Ratnapura district received up to 50 mm; Kegalla, Galle and Monaragala districts up to 30 mm; Kalutara, Gampaha, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm.

Total Rainfall for past week :  The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall of 500-750 mm in Ratnapura district; up to 300-500 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Colombo. Kalutara, Galle, and Matara districts; up to 200-300 mm Gampaha, Kegalla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 150-200 mm in Kandy and Badulla districts; up to 100-150 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts. It shows above average rainfall more than 500 mm for Ratnapura district; up to 300-500 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; up to 200-300 in Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalla and Nuwara Eliya district; up to 100-200 mm in Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; and 50-100 mm in Puttalam, and Kurunegala districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During April - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island. Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and Kandy districts received up to 210 mm below average rainfall; and many parts of the island received up to 150 mm. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kegalla, Galle and Matara districts amounted to 210 mm/month; and 150 mm/month for Puttalam, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to ~100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to ~75 mm Ampara, Puttalam and Mannar districts.

Predictions

14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 31st May – 6th Jun: Total Rainfall between 115-125 mm in Kegalle district; 105-115 mm in Ratnapura district; 95-105 mm in Gampaha, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts; 55-65 mm in Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; 45-55 mm in Kandy and Badulla; 35-45 mm in Kurunegala and Anuradhapura districts; 25-35 mm in Puttalam, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts; 15-25 mm in Monaragala district; 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Batticaloa, Ampara districts.
From 7th Jun – 12th Jun: Total rainfall between 75-85 mm in Ratnapura district; 65-75 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Matara districts; 55-65 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts; 35-45 mm in Anuradhapura districts; 25-35 mm in Northern province and Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy and Monaragala districts.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
  No model output due to technical problem.

Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : May 18, 2017
By mid-May 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Niño into the summer and fall of 2017.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE :  Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE :  MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 10 days and shall suppress the rainfall for the next 5 days

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