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Monday, June 30, 2014

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 26 June, 2014


Monitoring and Prediction
South western region of Sri Lanka continue to receive rainfall during the last week. This condition is expected to continue in the next two weeks.

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Weekly Monitoring:: On the 18th of June rainfall up to 40 mm was observed in Galle and Matara districts and apart from that some rainfall was observed in Kegalle district. On the next day rainfall diminished in Galle and Matara districts while the rainfall intensity increased in Kegalle district. From the 19th onwards until the 21st light rainfall was observed in South western to central Sri Lanka. No rainfall was observed on the 22nd and 23rd. During 18th- 24th, no rainfall was observed in anywhere else in the country. Sea towards South west of the country received rainfall throughout this week.

Monthly Monitoring:The average rainfall received by the entire country was less than 8 mm/day. The highest observed rainfall was in the Northern parts of Ampara and Badulla districts. Except for these regions and the Anuradhapura district less than average rainfall was observed all over Sri Lanka. During the first ten days of June, very high rainfall averaging up to 20 mm/day was observed in south western regions of Sri Lanka.


14-day prediction:More rainfall is expected (up to 55 mm) during the fortnight starting from 27th June 2014.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model and IRI forecasts South Western to western regions of the country shall continue to receive rainfall. No heavy rainfall events are expected during 26th June to 1st July 2014.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on June 2014; for July 2014 to September 2014, the precipitation shall be climatological while there is a 70% chance that temperature shall be above normal.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE June 19, 2014 :During May through mid-June the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Seas around Sri Lanka showed 1 ⁰C higher than average sea surface temperature.
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 7 in the Western Pacific and is weak. Therefore this shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka

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