Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 19 June, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
The South Western region of the country, particularly Kalutara and Ratnapura districts shall continue to receive high rainfall during this week. Some models predict rainfall in the entire western half of the country during the next few days. The rest of the country shall not receive a significant amount of rainfall during the next couple of weeks. The Sea surface temperature around the country is warmer than usual. Sustained El Nino conditions are predicted by June- July of this year.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:: During 10th – 16th June 2014 heavy rainfall was only observed on the 11th and 12th of June in South Western regions of Sri Lanka. Seas toward south west of the country also received rainfall during these two days. On the 13th light rainfall was observed in North central region of the country as well as in seas north east of the country. Highest rainfall during this week was observed on the 12th in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.


Monthly Monitoring:The average rainfall received by the entire country was less than 8 mm/day. The highest observed rainfall was in the Northern parts of Ampara and Badulla districts. Except for these regions and the Anuradhapura district less than average rainfall was observed all over Sri Lanka. During the first ten days of June, very high rainfall averaging up to 20 mm/day was observed in south western regions of Sri Lanka.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During this week (18th- 24th June) south western regions of the country shall receive further rainfall up to 75 mm. There shall be a reduction in the rainfall during the next week (25th June- 1st July) and rainfall for the week is expected only in south western region.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model the western half of Sri Lanka shall continue to receive rainfall up to 65 mm during 20th of June and shall expand to entire southern Sri Lanka on the 21st. Highest rainfall is expected in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts. Rainfall prediction from the IRI for 18th-23rd June also specify a similar rainfall pattern.

1 Month Prediction:The decreasing rainfall trend is still evident in the entire country except in the eastern coast.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on May 2014; for June 2014 to August 2014, there is a more than 70% probability for temperature to be above normal for Hambantota district and 60-70% probability for temperature to be above normal for rest of the regions in Sri Lanka in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE June 5, 2014 :During April through May the observed ENSO conditions moved from warm-neutral to the borderline of a weak El Niño condition. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions by the early northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Seas around Sri Lanka showed 0.5⁰C higher than average sea surface temperature
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 4