Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 12 June, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Existing rainfall condition shall decrease in different rates till 7th June 2014. However, western slopes and coasts are likely to observe significant rainfall event during 2nd-5th June 2014. For the eastern slopes and coasts significant dry condition is likely to observe during the beginning of June 2014.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:During 4th-9th June 2014, only South western to Central regions of Sri Lanka received rainfall. This observed rainfall ranged between 0- 40 mm and highest rainfall events were observed on the 4th and the 8th of June. On the 10th of June the weather condition of entire Sri Lanka was completely devoid of rainfall.


Monthly Monitoring:The average rainfall received by the entire country was less than 8 mm/day. The highest observed rainfall was in the Northern parts of Ampara and Badulla districts. Except for these regions and the Anuradhapura district less than average rainfall was observed all over Sri Lanka. During the first ten days of June, very high rainfall averaging up to 20 mm/day was observed in south western regions of Sri Lanka.

Predictions

14-day prediction:During the next two weeks south western regions of the country shall receive further rainfall up to 55 mm.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: Western half of Sri Lanka shall receive rainfall up to 35 mm during 17th of June and shall increase further up to 65 mm by the 18th of June. Little or no rainfall is expected on the eastern half of the country during this period.

1 Month Prediction:The existing rainfall conditions shall decrease until the 19th of June. A decreasing trend in rainfall is evident during the next 30 days in the entire country.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on May 2014; for June 2014 to August 2014, there is a more than 70% probability for temperature to be above normal for Hambantota district and 60-70% probability for temperature to be above normal for rest of the regions in Sri Lanka in the country while the rainfall is to be climatological.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE May 15, 2014 :During April through mid-May the observed ENSO conditions moved from warm-neutral to the borderline of a weak El Niño condition. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions by the early northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :Seas around Sri Lanka showed neutral sea surface temperature during 1st-7th June 2014.
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 4