Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 16 April 2020)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during 15 - 20 Apr.

• Between 7 - 14 Apr: up to 170 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts on the 13^th.

• From 7 - 13 Apr: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

• 0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

7^thApril

Up to 10 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.

8^thApril

Up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in most parts of the island.

9^th April

Up to 20 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

10^thApril

Up to 170 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 70 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 20 mm in Mannar and Kegalle districts.

11^th April

Up to 50 mm in Kegalle district; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha and Nuwara Eliya districts.

12^th April

Up to 70 mm in Matara, Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 60 mm in Ratnapura Kegalle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.

13^th April

Up to 180 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Hambantota and Kegalle districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Matale district; and up to 20 mm in Ampara district.

14^th April

Up to 70 mm in Matale and Kandy districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150-200 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 100-150 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 75-100 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Polonnaruwa and Kalutara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up and to 50-100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for in Galle, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam Ampara and most places of Anuradhapura district.

Monthly Monitoring: During March – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla and Kandy districts.

Date	Rainfall
7^thApril	Up to 10 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
8^thApril	Up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in most parts of the island.
9^th April	Up to 20 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
10^thApril	Up to 170 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 70 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 20 mm in Mannar and Kegalle districts.
11^th April	Up to 50 mm in Kegalle district; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha and Nuwara Eliya districts.
12^th April	Up to 70 mm in Matara, Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 60 mm in Ratnapura Kegalle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.
13^th April	Up to 180 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Hambantota and Kegalle districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Matale district; and up to 20 mm in Ampara district.
14^th April	Up to 70 mm in Matale and Kandy districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 15^th – 21^st Apr: Total rainfall up to 45 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Kegalle districts; up to 35 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 25 mm is in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.

From 22^nd – 28^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 15^th – 20^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 150 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 100 mm in Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 75 mm in Matale, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 9, 2020

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of El Niño during early April. However, patterns in atmospheric variables were mainly neutral. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during the rest of spring, cooling to average by summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral through fall.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 9 April 2020)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 50 mm of total rainfall in central and western regions of the island during 8 - 13 Apr.

• Between 1 - 6 Apr: up to 120 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts on the 4^th.

• From 31 Mar - 6 Apr: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

• 0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

1^stApril

Up to 5 mm in Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts.

2^ndApril

No Rainfall.

3^rd April

Up to 5 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.

4^thApril

Up to 120 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo and Kegalle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla and Kandy districts.

5^th April

Up to 30 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts.

6^th April

Up to 5 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Matara districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 50-75 mm in Puttalam district; up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Gampaha and Colombo and up to 10-25 mm in Vavuniya, Kandy, Kegalle, and Kalutara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for in Ratnapura district, and up to 25-50 mm in Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During March – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla and Kandy districts.

Date	Rainfall
1^stApril	Up to 5 mm in Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts.
2^ndApril	No Rainfall.
3^rd April	Up to 5 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
4^thApril	Up to 120 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo and Kegalle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla and Kandy districts.
5^th April	Up to 30 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts.
6^th April	Up to 5 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Matara districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 8^th – 14^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
From 15^th – 22^nd Apr: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 8^th – 13^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala, and Badulla districts; and up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 10 days; and shall not have an impact in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 19, 2020
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 2 April 2020)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 50 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during 1 - 6 Apr.

• Between 24 - 31 Mar: up to 70 mm of rainfalls were recoreded in Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts on the 30^th.

• From 24 - 30 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island

• 0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

24^thMarch

Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.

25^thMarch

Up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 5 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.

26^th March

Up to 5 mm in Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.

27^thMarch

Up to 5 mm in Galle and Matara districts.

28^th March

Up to 5 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts.

29^th March

Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalle districts; up to 10 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, and Kandy districts.

30^th March

Up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, and Hambantota districts.

31^st March

Up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Monaragala district; up to 25-50 mm in Kegalle, Kandy, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, and Matara districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for in Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During March – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla and Kandy districts.

Date	Rainfall
24^thMarch	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
25^thMarch	Up to 10 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 5 mm in Kegalle and Ratnapura districts.
26^th March	Up to 5 mm in Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts.
27^thMarch	Up to 5 mm in Galle and Matara districts.
28^th March	Up to 5 mm in Gampaha and Kegalle districts.
29^th March	Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala and Kegalle districts; up to 10 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, and Kandy districts.
30^th March	Up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Colombo, and Hambantota districts.
31^st March	Up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 1^st – 7^th Apr: No Rainfall.
From 8^th – 15^th Apr: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 1^st – 6^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; and up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days; and shall suppress in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 26 March 2020)

Highlights

The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 24 - 29 Mar.
Between 18 - 23 Mar: up to 20 mm of rainfall were recorded in Colombo and Polonnaruwa districts on the 18th and 20th respectively.
From 17 - 23 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

18^thMarch

Up to 20 mm in Colombo district; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Ampara and Badulla districts.

19^thMarch

Up to 10 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 5 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Matara and Hambantota districts.

20^th March

Up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Badulla districts.

21^stMarch

Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.

22^nd March

Up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Kurunegala districts; and up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts.

23^rd March

No Rainfall.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 10-25 mm in Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Anuradhapura, PO, and Mataledistricts; up to 5-10 mm in Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Gampaha Galle, and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown for Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya Badulla and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During February – The above-average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of the Mannar district. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle, and Kalutara districts.

Date	Rainfall
18^thMarch	Up to 20 mm in Colombo district; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Matale, Ampara and Badulla districts.
19^thMarch	Up to 10 mm in Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 5 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Matara and Hambantota districts.
20^th March	Up to 20 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle and Badulla districts.
21^stMarch	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
22^nd March	Up to 10 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Kurunegala districts; and up to 5 mm in Puttalam, Kegalle, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts.
23^rd March	No Rainfall.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 25^th – 31^st Mar: No Rainfall.
From 1^st – 7^th Apr: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 24^th – 29^th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 5 days; shall not have an impact in the following 5 days and shall suppress in the next 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 19 March 2020)

Highlights

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 18 - 23 Mar.

• Between 11 - 17 Mar: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts on the 16^th.

• From 10 - 16 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

• 0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

Download full report ↓

Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date

Rainfall

11^th-13^th March

No Rainfall.

14^thMarch

Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.

15^th March

No Rainfall.

16^thMarch

Up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.

17^th March

Up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; up to 30 mm in Galle district; and up to 20 mm in Kandy and Kegalle districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Gampaha and southern regions of Kurunegala and Puttalam districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ratnapura district; and up to 25-50 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

.

Monthly Monitoring: During February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of Mannar district. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle and Kalutara districts.

Date	Rainfall
11^th-13^th March	No Rainfall.
14^thMarch	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
15^th March	No Rainfall.
16^thMarch	Up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.
17^th March	Up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; up to 30 mm in Galle district; and up to 20 mm in Kandy and Kegalle districts.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction:

NOAA NCEP models:

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 18^th – 24^th Mar: No Rainfall.
From 25^th – 31^st Mar: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast:
From 4^th – 9^th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days:

MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 12, 2020
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during early March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.