Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 19 March 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in most parts of the island during 18 - 23 Mar.

•          Between 11 - 17 Mar: up to 50 mm of rainfall was recoreded in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts on the 16^th.

•          From 10 - 16 Mar: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•          0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
11th -13th March	No Rainfall.
14th   March	Up to 5 mm in Ratnapura district.
15th March	No Rainfall.
16th March	Up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Colombo Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.
17th March	Up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; up to 30 mm in Galle district; and up to 20 mm in Kandy and Kegalle districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 50-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; up to 25-50 mm in Kegalle, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 10-25 mm is shown for Gampaha and southern regions of Kurunegala and Puttalam districts. Below average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Ratnapura district; and up to 25-50 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 10-25 mm in most parts of the island.

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Monthly Monitoring: During February – Above average rainfall conditions up to 150 mm were experienced by several regions of Mannar district. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 75 mm were experienced by Mannar, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Monaragala, Hambantota, Galle and Kalutara districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 18^th – 24^th Mar: No Rainfall.
From 25^th – 31^st Mar: No Rainfall.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4^th – 9^th Mar: Total rainfall up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: February 12, 2020 
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during early March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and weak El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.