Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 16 April 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 150 mm of total rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts during 15 - 20 Apr.

•          Between 7 - 14 Apr: up to 170 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts on the 13^th.

•          From 7 - 13 Apr: up to 18 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•          0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
7th April	Up to 10 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
8th   April	Up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Monaragala, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in most parts of the island.
9th April	Up to 20 mm in Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
10th April	Up to 170 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 70 mm in Badulla, Monaragala, and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 20 mm in Mannar and Kegalle districts.
11th April	Up to 50 mm in Kegalle district; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha and Nuwara Eliya districts.
12th April	Up to 70 mm in Matara, Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 60 mm in Ratnapura Kegalle and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts.
13th April	Up to 180 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 120 mm in Matara district; up to 70 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Hambantota and Kegalle districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy and Kalutara districts; up to 30 mm in Matale district; and up to 20 mm in Ampara district.
14th April	Up to 70 mm in Matale and Kandy districts; up to 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha and Colombo districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150-200 mm in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 100-150 mm in Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 75-100 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Polonnaruwa and Kalutara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for in Ratnapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up and to 50-100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for in Galle, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Kilinochchi, Vavuniya Mullaitivu, Mannar, Puttalam Ampara and most places of Anuradhapura district.

Monthly Monitoring: During March – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla and Kandy districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 15^th – 21^st Apr: Total rainfall up to 45 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Kegalle districts; up to 35 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; and up to 25 mm is  in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.

From 22^nd – 28^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 25 mm in Kurunegala, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 15^th – 20^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 150 mm in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla districts; up to 100 mm in Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 75 mm in Matale, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Ampara districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 9, 2020 

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of El Niño during early April. However, patterns in atmospheric variables were mainly neutral. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during the rest of spring, cooling to average by summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral through fall.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.