Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 9 April 2020)

                                                      Highlights                             

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 50 mm of total rainfall in central and western regions of the island during 8 - 13 Apr.

•          Between 1 - 6 Apr: up to 120 mm of rainfalls were recorded in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts on the 4^th.

•          From 31 Mar - 6 Apr: up to 18 km/h, easterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•          0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
1st April	Up to 5 mm in Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts.
2nd   April	No Rainfall.
3rd April	Up to 5 mm in Gampaha, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
4th April	Up to 120 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo and Kegalle districts; up to 30 mm in Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Trincomalee, Ampara, Badulla and Kandy districts.
5th April	Up to 30 mm in Kurunegala district; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts.
6th April	Up to 5 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Matara districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 75-100 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 50-75 mm in Puttalam district; up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Gampaha and Colombo and up to 10-25 mm in Vavuniya, Kandy, Kegalle, and Kalutara districts. Above-average rainfall up to 25-50 mm is shown in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for in Ratnapura district, and up to 25-50 mm in Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Kalutara, Colombo and Gampaha districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During March – Below average rainfall conditions up to 240 mm were experienced by Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 150 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 100 mm of total rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 75 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla and Kandy districts.

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 8^th – 14^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 25 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
From 15^th – 22^nd Apr: Total rainfall up to 35 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; up to 25 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Galle and Matara districts; and up to 15 mm is expected in most parts of the island.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 8^th – 13^th Apr: Total rainfall up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala, and Badulla districts; and up to 25 mm is expected in most parts of the island.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka in next 10 days; and shall not have an impact in the following 5 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: March 19, 2020 
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for a continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.