Highlights
• During 7 - 13 Aug, high likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Western, and Southern provinces and moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Uva, North Central, Central, Northern and Eastern provinces.
• On average, 2.4 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Eastern hills (6 mm) for last 8 days. On average, 3 mm was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Kukule Ganga (Kalutara District) received the highest rainfall (55 mm) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Bandarawela on 5 Aug (35.6 mm).
• From 24 Jul - 4 Aug, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were westerly and north- westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 8 Aug - 14 Aug, winds are predicted to be north-westerly, reaching up to 3 m/s
• Average land surface temperature was 31.5ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was normal to the Eastern , North Eastern and some parts of the Northern side of the country and 1.0℃ above average for the other half of the country
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 7th August - 13th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 75 mm - Western
- 65 mm - Southern
- 55 mm - Sabaragamuwa, North Western
- 45 mm - Uva, Central
- ≤35 mm - Northern, Eastern, North Central
From 14th August - 20th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 135≤ mm - Southern
- 115 mm - Western
- 105 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 95 mm - Central, Uva
- 75 mm - North Western, North Central, Eastern
- ≤55 mm - Northern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall be moderately suppress for the rainfall during 31 July-14 August for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 29, 2024
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western and west-central Pacific, near average in the east-central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to develop during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).
Indian Sea Sate
MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 7 – 16 August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 17 – 21 August for Sri Lanka.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there has been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area:
Huruluwawa (Anuradhapura District)
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (1 - 8 Aug) = 2.4 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 35.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average
rainfall for 1 - 8 Aug (mm) |
Average
temperature for 1 - 8 Aug (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern
plains |
1.6 |
34.4 |
25.8 |
|
Eastern
hills |
6.1 |
29.6 |
18.8 |
|
Eastern
plains |
2.8 |
34.9 |
25.1 |
|
Western
hills |
2.7 |
27.9 |
20.1 |
|
Western
plains |
2.1 |
31.3 |
26.5 |
|
Southern
plains |
0.0 |
31.7 |
24.7 |
|
Region |
Average
rainfall for 1 - 8 Aug (mm) |
Daily
maximum rainfall for 1 - 8 Aug (mm) |
Daily minimum
rainfall for 1 - 8 Aug (mm) |
|
All SL |
2.4 |
35.6 |
0.0 |
|
Hydro
catchment |
2.9 |
55.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: Westerly and North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for Eastern, Uva and some parts of the Sabaragamuwa province for Sri Lanka driven by the warm SSTs.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (7 August - 13 August), fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, North Western, and Southern provinces and moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Uva, North Central, Central, Northern and Eastern provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces during 8 August - 14 August.
Teleconnections: MJO shall near neutral the rainfall during 7 – 16 August and slightly enhance the rainfall during 17 – 21 August for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October, 2024 season shows a 40% or more tendency toward normal precipitation for the country.
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