Highlights
• During 21 - 27 Aug, high likelihood of Light Showers (<12.5 mm) is predicted for the whole SL. The middle atmospheric convergence at latitudes around Sri Lanka has the potential to bring rainfall to the SL. According to the medium-range weather forecast, the Eastern Province has a highly tendency of above normal rainfall due to these conditions.
• On average, 10 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western plains (16.2 mm) and hills (11.5 mm) for last 8 days.On average, 9.6 mm was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Kukule Ganga (Kalutara District) received the highest rainfall (125 mm) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Mullativu on 20 Aug (151 mm).
• From 13 Aug - 19 Aug, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north- westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 22 Aug - 28 Aug, winds are predicted to be westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s.
• Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC and cooler anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average of the country.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 21st August - 27th
August:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- ≤10 mm - Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Uva, Central, North Western, North Central, Eastern
From 28th August - 3rd September:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- ≤25 mm - Northern, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Western, Uva, Central, North Western, North Central, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 21st – 30th August and near neutral the rainfall during 31st August – 4th September for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: August 21, 2024
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western Pacific, near average in the east-central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average from 30 July to 5 August 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there has been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Palugaswewa Estate (Puttlam)
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (15 - 21 Aug) = 6.6 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 96.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 96.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average
rainfall for 15 - 21 Aug (mm) |
Average
temperature for 15 - 21 Aug (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern plains |
8.5 |
32.3 |
25.1 |
|
Eastern hills |
10.2 |
29.1 |
24.0 |
|
Eastern plains |
7.3 |
32.7 |
23.1 |
|
Western hills |
11.5 |
27.7 |
23.7 |
|
Western plains |
16.2 |
30.1 |
24.5 |
|
Southern plains |
9.5 |
30.9 |
26.1 |
|
Region |
Average
rainfall for 15 - 21 Aug (mm) |
Daily
maximum rainfall for 15 - 21 Aug (mm) |
Daily
minimum rainfall for 15 - 21 Aug (mm) |
|
All SL |
10.3 |
151.1 |
0.0 |
|
Hydro catchment |
9.6 |
125.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Central and Sabaragamuwa province and below normal for some parts of the Eastern province for Sri Lanka driven by the warm SSTs.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (21 - 27 Aug ), Light Showers (<12.5 mm) is predicted for the whole SL.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern and Eastern provinces during 22 August - 28 August.
Teleconnections: MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 21st – 30th August and near neutral the rainfall during 31st August – 4th September for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the September-October-November, 2024 season shows a 40% or more tendency toward normal precipitation for the country.
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