Highlights
• During 1 - 7 Aug, high likelihood of fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central, Uva, Eastern, North Western and Southern provinces and moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Northern and North Central provinces.
• On average, 3.3 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western plains (7 mm) and hills (7.4 mm) for last 8 days. On average, 12 mm was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Canyon (Nuwara Eliya District) received the highest rainfall (105 mm) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Devitura Estate (Galle District) on 29 July (126 mm).
• From 24 Jul - 30 Jul, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were north-westerly, reaching up to 20 m/s. From 2 Aug - 8 Aug, winds are predicted to be north-westerly, reaching up to 5 m/s.
• Average land surface temperature was 31.5ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above average.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 31st July - 6th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 95 mm - Southern
- 75 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 65 mm - Central, Uva
- 55 mm - Eastern, North Western
- 45 mm - North Central
- ≤ 35 mm - Northern
From 7th August - 13th August:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 95 mm - Southern
- 85 mm - Western
- 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa
- 65 mm - Central, Uva
- 45 mm - North Western, North Central
- ≤35 mm - Northern, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall be moderately suppress for the rainfall during 31 July-14 August for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 29, 2024
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western and west-central Pacific, near average in the east-central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to develop during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average from 9 July to 15 July 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there has been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area: Devitura Estate (Galle District)
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (25 July - 31 July) = 3.3 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 97.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
|
Region |
Average rainfall for 25 – 31 Jul (mm) |
Average temperature for 25 – 31 Jul (ºC) |
|
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
|
Northern plains |
2.0 |
34.2 |
26.9 |
|
Eastern hills |
0.1 |
30.1 |
20.3 |
|
Eastern plains |
1.6 |
36.2 |
26.3 |
|
Western hills |
7.4 |
27.2 |
20.8 |
|
Western plains |
7.0 |
31.5 |
26.2 |
|
Southern plains |
0.0 |
33.0 |
25.4 |
|
Region |
Average rainfall for 25 – 31 Jul (mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for 25 – 31 Jul (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for 25 – 31 Jul (mm) |
|
All SL |
3.3 |
97.4 |
0.0 |
|
Hydro catchment |
11.8 |
105.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for most parts and neutral for some parts of Northern, North Western and North Central Sri Lanka driven by the warm SSTs.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (1 Aug - 7 Aug), fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Central, Uva, Eastern, North Western and Southern provinces and moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Northern and North Central provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern, North Central, and Uva provinces during 2-8 August.
Teleconnections: MJO shall be moderately suppressed for the rainfall during 31 July-14 August for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the August-September-October, 2024 season shows a 40% or more tendency toward normal precipitation for the country.
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