Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (10 September 2021)

Highlights          

                   

 •  Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces during 10th - 14th September

 •  Fairly heavy rains were experienced in the Central, Sabaragamuwa & Southern provinces with max of 94.5 mm in Matara district on 4th September

 •  From 31st Aug- 6th Sept: up to  15 km/h from Southwesterly were experienced over the island

 •  Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 8^th – 14^th September: 

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 65 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 55 mm - Western, Southern
• 45 mm - Central
• 35 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
• 15 mm - Northern 

From 15^th – 21^st September: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 75 mm - Sabaragamuwa 
• 65 mm - Central, Western
• 55 mm - Southern
• 45 mm - Uva
• 25 mm - Eastern, North Western
• 15 mm - Northern, North Central

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 10^th – 22^nd September. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: September 1, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early-September and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO –Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the East.