Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (7 May 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 135 mm expected in Southern & Sabaragamuwa during 7th – 11th May and 145 mm expected in Southern province during 12th – 18th May.

  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL. Thunder showers in Southern province with a maximum of  157 mm in Matara on 3rd May.

•  From 26th  Apr - 2nd May: up to 5 km/h from the West and South were experienced.

•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

•  The SST forecast is for the present weak La Niña conditions to transition into ENSO neutral conditions.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

•   150 – 200 mm - Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 100 – 150 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Badulla, Moneragala
• 75 – 100 mm - Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna
  

Total rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 100 – 200 mm - Kandy, Ampara, Moneragala, Badulla, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 50 – 100 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Batticaloa, Colombo, Gampaha, Kegalle
• 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

11^th – 20^th April:

• 14 mm - Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Ampara, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Moneragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kurunegala, Matara, Hambantota
• 10 mm - Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Galle
• 8 mm - Mannar
• 6 mm - Kilinochchi
• 4 mm - Jaffna

21^st – 30^th April:

• 16 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara
• 14 mm - Kegalle
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnaputa, Kandy, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kurunegala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale
• 4 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 7^th – 11^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 135 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• 115 mm - Western
• 105 mm - Central, North Western, North Central
• 95 mm - Eastern, Uva
• 85 mm - Northern

From 12^th – 18^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 145 mm - Southern
• 135 mm - Sabaragamuwa
• 125 mm - Western
• 105 mm - North Western
• 95 mm - Central
• 85 mm - North Central, Uva
• 75 mm - Eastern
• 65 mm - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 4^th–18^th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: April 28, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in late April and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.