Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (14 May 2021)

 

Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 145 mm expected in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa during 13th – 18th May and 125 mm expected in Sabaragamuwa and Southern during 19th – 25th  May

  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL. Thunder showers in Western province with a maximum of  148 mm in Colombo on 9th May.

•  From 4th  - 10th May: up to 5 km/h from the West and South were experienced. 

•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

•  The SST forecast is for the present weak La Niña conditions to transition into ENSO neutral conditions.

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Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:

• 75 – 100 mm - Puttalam, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara, Hambantota
• 50 – 75 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala, Matale, Batticaloa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala
• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna
  

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts

Rainfall Excess

• 50 – 100 mm - Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Badulla, Moneragala, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Matale,  Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Kurunegala 
• 25 – 50 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Batticaloa
• 10 – 25 mm - Jaffna

Monthly Monitoring: 

Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:

21^st – 30^th April:

• 16 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara
• 14 mm - Kegalle
• 12 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnaputa, Kandy, Vavuniya, Mannar
• 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
• 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kurunegala
• 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale
• 4 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
• 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1^st – 10^th May:

• 16 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala
• 14 mm - Ampara, Kilinochchi
• 12 mm - Polonnaruwa
• 6 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee
• 4 mm  - Jaffna
  

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 13^th – 18^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces: 

• 145 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
• 135 mm - North Western
• 125 mm - Central
• 105 mm - Uva
• 95 mm - Northern, North Central, Eastern

From 19^th – 25^th May: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 125 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Southern
• 105 mm - Western
• 95 mm   - Central
• 85 mm   - North Central, North Western
• 75 mm   - Uva, Eastern
• 65 mm  - Northern

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

 MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 11^th–25^th May.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: May 5, 2021 

Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in early May and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State

Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.