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Friday, May 21, 2021

Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (21 May 2021)

 


Highlights          

                   

  •   Showers of 145 mm expected in Western, Southern and Sabaragamuwa during 21st May – 1st June.
  •   Last week was wetter than normal in most of SL.  Thunder showers in Western province with a maximum of  336 mm in Kalutara on 13th May.
  From 11th  - 17th May: up to 10 km/h from the West and South wind were experienced. Cyclone Takutae travelled along the western part of the Kerala, Maharashtra and Gurajat coasts and there were long-range effects even this week.   
•  Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.
•  The SST forecast indicates that the La Niña event has transitioned to ENSO-neutral. 







Monitoring

Rainfall
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 
The RFE 2.0 tool shows Cumulative rainfall by Districts:
  • 150 – 200 mm  - Moneragala
  • 100 – 150 mm - Polonnaruwa, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Batticaloa, Ampara, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Gamapaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura
  • 75 – 100 mm - Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Matale
  • 50 – 75 mm - Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna

Weekly rainfall Anomalies by Districts
Rainfall Excess
  • 100 – 200 mm - Polonnaruwa, Hambantota, Moneragala, Badulla, Ampara, Batticaloa
  • 50 – 100 mm - Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara
  • 25 – 50 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

Monthly Monitoring
Dekadal Rainfall by Districts:


21st – 30th April:
  • 16 mm - Badulla, Moneragala, Ampara
  • 14 mm - Kegalle
  • 12 mm - Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Ratnaputa, Kandy, Vavuniya, Mannar
  • 10 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya
  • 8 mm - Mullaitivu, Batticaloa, Kurunegala
  • 6 mm - Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Matale
  • 4 mm  - Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee
  • 2 mm - Jaffna, Kilinochchi

1st – 10th May:
  • 16 mm - Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Moneragala, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Kurunegala
  • 14 mm - Ampara, Kilinochchi
  • 12 mm - Polonnaruwa
  • 6 mm- Batticaloa, Trincomalee
  • 4 mm  - Jaffna

Predictions


Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 21st – 25th May: 
Total rainfall by Provinces: 
  • 145 mm - Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Central
  • 95 mm - North Western
  • 85 mm - Uva
  • 75 mm - North Central
  • 65 mm - Northern, Eastern
From 26th May – 1st June: 
Total rainfall by Provinces:
  • 145 mm - Southern, Sabaragamuwa
  • 125 mm - Western
  • 105 mm - North Western, Central
  • 95 mm  - Uva
  • 55 mm  - North Central
  • 45 mm  - Northern, Eastern
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days: 
 MJO shall significantly enhance the rainfall during 18th–22nd May, Neutral during 23rd– 27th May and severely suppressed rainfall during 28th May – 1st June.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: May 12, 2021 
Equatorial SSTs were mostly below average from the east to the Middle West Pacific Ocean in mid May and most key atmospheric variables were either ENSO –Neutral or consistent with continued La Niña conditions. A large majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring.

Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed around 0.5℃ above average around the island.

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