Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (6 November 2020)

 

              Highlights                             

 •  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts  up to 85 mm rainfall will be experienced by the southwest and northwest of the island from 5th-11th Nov.

  •   Between 29th Oct- 4th Nov: up to 120 mm in Ampara district on 30th Oct.

  •   MJO shall suppress the rainfall over Sri Lanka from 4^th – 18^th November.

•  From  28th Oct - 4th Nov: up to 4 km/h  northwesterly winds were experienced by the Northern and Southeast of the island.

•  Less than 0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka which shall likely change as the La Nina sets in more fully.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Daily Maximum Rainfall
29th October	Up to 90 mm in Moneragala district.
30th October	Up to 120 mm in Ampara district.
31st October	Up to 100 mm in Batticaloa district.
1st November	Up to 70 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts.
2nd November	Up to 90 mm in Moneragala district.
3rd November	Up to 90 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.
4th November	Up to 90 mm in Anuradhapura district.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: 

The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150 – 200 mm in Moneragala, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; up to 100 – 150 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and   Anuradhapura districts; up to 75 – 100 mm in Hambantota, Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, and Puttalam districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Trincomalee, Mannar, Colombo, Gampaha and Vavuniya districts; up to 25 -50 mm Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts and up to 10 – 25 mm in Kilinochchi district.  

Above rainfall average up to 100 – 200 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts; up to 50 – 100 mm in Ratnaputa, Matale, Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Kegalle, Mannara and Puttalam, districts; Below rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Jaffna district; up to 25 – 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Gampaha and Colombo districts.

  

Monthly Monitoring: 

During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Ampara and Moneragala districts; up to 2 mm in Mannar, Batticaloa, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; Below average rainfall up to 8 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Colombo district; up to 6 mm in Matara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Trincomalee districts. 

 Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

From 5^th – 11^th November: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Northeast and Southwest of the island; up to 75 mm rainfall in North, Northwest, west, east and central of the island and up to 55 mm rainfall in South and Southeast of the island. 

From 12^th – 18^th November: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in East and Southwest of the island and up to 55 mm rainfall in North, Northeast, Northwest, West, Central, South and Southeast of the island. 

IRI Model Forecast: 

From 24^th – 29^th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. 

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall over Sri Lanka from 4^th – 18^th November.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 28, 2020 

Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in late-October, and the atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly weaker beginning in early winter. 

Indian Ocean State

Less than 0.5 ⁰C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.