Highlights
• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 85
mm rainfall will be experienced by the
southwest and northwest of the island from 5th-11th Nov.
• Between 29th Oct- 4th Nov: up to 120 mm in Ampara district on 30th Oct.
• MJO shall suppress the rainfall over Sri Lanka from 4th
– 18th November.
• From 28th Oct - 4th Nov: up to 4 km/h
northwesterly winds were experienced by the Northern and Southeast of
the island.
• Less than 0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka which shall likely change as the La Nina sets in more fully.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
Daily Maximum Rainfall
29th October
Up to 90 mm in Moneragala district.
30th October
Up to 120 mm in Ampara district.
31st October
Up to 100 mm in Batticaloa district.
1st November
Up to 70 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts.
2nd November
Up to 90 mm in Moneragala district.
3rd November
Up to 90 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.
4th November
Up to 90 mm in Anuradhapura
district.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week:
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 150 – 200 mm in Moneragala, Badulla and Ratnapura
districts; up to 100 – 150 mm in Nuwara Eliya, Matale, Ampara, Batticaloa,
Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts;
up to 75 – 100 mm in Hambantota, Galle, Matara, Kalutara, Kandy, Kegalle,
Kurunegala, and Puttalam districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in Trincomalee, Mannar,
Colombo, Gampaha and Vavuniya districts; up to 25 -50 mm Mullaitivu and Jaffna
districts and up to 10 – 25 mm in Kilinochchi district.
Above rainfall average up to 100 – 200 mm in Moneragala and
Badulla districts; up to 50 – 100 mm in Ratnaputa, Matale, Ampara and
Batticaloa districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota,
Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa and Anuradhapura districts; up to
10 – 25 mm in Kegalle, Mannara and Puttalam, districts; Below
rainfall average up to 50 – 100 mm in Jaffna district; up to 25 – 50 mm in
Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Gampaha and Colombo districts.
Weekly Monitoring:
Date | Daily Maximum Rainfall |
29th October | Up to 90 mm in Moneragala district. |
30th October | Up to 120 mm in Ampara district. |
31st October | Up to 100 mm in Batticaloa district. |
1st November | Up to 70 mm in Moneragala and Badulla districts. |
2nd November | Up to 90 mm in Moneragala district. |
3rd November | Up to 90 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts. |
4th November | Up to 90 mm in Anuradhapura district. |
Monthly Monitoring:
During October – Above average
rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Ampara and
Moneragala districts; up to 2 mm in Mannar, Batticaloa, Ratnapura and
Hambantota districts; Below average rainfall up to 8 mm in Galle, Kalutara and
Colombo district; up to 6 mm in Matara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy,
Kurunegala, Puttalam, Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu,
Polonnaruwa, Matale and Trincomalee districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
NOAA NCEP models:
From 5th – 11th November: Total rainfall up to 85 mm in Northeast and Southwest of the
island; up to 75 mm rainfall in North, Northwest, west, east and central of the
island and up to 55 mm rainfall in South and Southeast of the island.
From 12th – 18th November: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in East and Southwest of the island and up to 55 mm rainfall in North, Northeast, Northwest, West, Central, South and Southeast of the island.
IRI Model Forecast:
From 24th – 29th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall suppress the rainfall over Sri Lanka from 4th –
18th November.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: October 28, 2020
Equatorial Eastern
Pacific SST decreased to near the La Niña threshold in late-October, and the
atmospheric variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña
conditions. The average of the forecasts of many models just short of the
borderline of weak La Niña SST conditions through fall, becoming slightly
weaker beginning in early winter.
Indian Ocean State
Less than 0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
No comments:
Post a Comment