Highlights
• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts Between 11th-17th Nov: very high
rainfall over the Eastern and Southern Provinces the drop in rainfall over the
rest of the country.
• Between 3rd - 9th Nov: up to 240 mm in Ratnapura and Moneragala districts on
9th
Nov.
• MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 10th –
14th Nov and significantly enhance during 15th - 24th
Nov over Sri Lanka.
• From 3rd - 9th Nov: up to 6 -8 km/h
northeasterly winds were experienced by the Northern of the island.
• 0.50C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka which shall likely change as the La Nina sets in more fully.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
Daily Maximum Rainfall
3rd November
Up
to 90 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts.
4th November
Up to 90 mm in Anuradhapura district.
5th November
Up
to 90 mm in Kegalle district.
6th November
Up to 40 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts.
7th November
Up
to 40 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle district.
8th November
Up to 140 mm in Gampaha district.
9th November
Up
to 240 mm in Ratnapura and Moneragala districts.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week:
The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300 – 500 mm in Ratnapura and Moneragala districts; up
to 200 – 300 mm in Badulla, Colombo, Kalutara, Gampaha and Matara districts; up
to 150 – 200 mm in Kegalle, Galle, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Mullaitivu,
Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee districts; up to 100 – 150 mm in
Kilinochchi, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Kandy districts; up to 75 – 100 mm in
Matale, Mannar, Polonnaruwa and Jaffna districts; up to 50 – 75 mm in
Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
Above rainfall average up to 200 – 300 mm in Moneragala and Ratnapura districts; up
to 100 – 200 mm in Hambantota, Badulla and Matara, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara,
Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, and Trincomalee districts; up to 50 – 100
mm in Galle, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Puttalam,
Mannar, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; up to 10 – 25 mm in Kurunegala
district; Below rainfall average up to 25 – 50 mm in Ampara, Batticaloa,
Polonnaruwa, Matale and Kandy districts.
Monthly Monitoring:
During October – Above average
rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Ampara and
Moneragala districts; up to 2 mm in Mannar, Batticaloa, Ratnapura and
Hambantota districts; Below average rainfall up to 8 mm in Galle, Kalutara and
Colombo district; up to 6 mm in Matara, Gampaha, Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy,
Kurunegala, Puttalam, Jaffna districts; up to 4 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu,
Polonnaruwa, Matale and Trincomalee districts.
Weekly Monitoring:
Date |
Daily Maximum Rainfall |
3rd November |
Up
to 90 mm in Galle, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts. |
4th November |
Up to 90 mm in Anuradhapura district. |
5th November |
Up
to 90 mm in Kegalle district. |
6th November |
Up to 40 mm in Puttalam and Kurunegala districts. |
7th November |
Up
to 40 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara and Galle district. |
8th November |
Up to 140 mm in Gampaha district. |
9th November |
Up
to 240 mm in Ratnapura and Moneragala districts. |
Predictions
Rainfall
NOAA NCEP models:
From 11th – 17th November: Total rainfall up to 140 mm in East, South and Southwest of
the island; up to 125 mm rainfall in Southeast and Central of the island; up to
115 mm rainfall in West and Northeast of the island and up to 105 mm in North
and Northwest of the island.
From 18th – 24th November: Total rainfall up to 140 mm in East of the island; up to 135
mm rainfall in Central and Southwest of the island; up to 125 mm in South,
Southeast and Northeast of the island; up to 105 mm in Northern and Western of
the islands and up to 95 mm in Northwest of the island.
IRI Model Forecast:
From 24th – 29th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 10th –
14th Nov and significantly enhance during 15th - 24th
Nov over Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: November 4, 2020
Equatorial Eastern
Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in early-November, and the atmospheric
variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.
Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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