Highlights
• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts Between 26th Nov -2nd Dec: high
rainfall over the Eastern Province the drop in rainfall over the rest of the
country.
• Cyclonic circulation: emnants shall weaken as it going inland into
Tamil Nadu in the next days. The impacts on Sri Lanka were heavy rainfall
and high wind in the Mullaitivu and Jaffna districts and the surrounding
seas
• Between 19th - 25th Nov: up to 90 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya
districts on 24th Nov.
• MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th –
29th Nov and Significantly suppress during 30th Nov - 9th
Dec over Sri Lanka.
• From
18th - 24th Nov:up to 8 km/h Northeasterly winds were experienced by the
nothern of the island
• 0.50C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka which shall likely change as the La Nina sets in more fully.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
Daily Maximum Rainfall
19th November
Up to 30 mm in Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts.
20th November
Up to 60 mm in Galle and Matara districts.
21st November
Up to 60 mm in Galle and Kalutara districts.
22nd November
Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee district.
23rd November
Up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts.
24th November
Up to 90 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
25th November
Up to 70 mm in Jaffna district.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 200 – 300 mm in Jaffna
and Mullaitivu districts; up to 150 – 200 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya,
Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Batticaloa districts; up to 100 –
150 mm up to in Puttalam district; up to 75 – 100 mm in Kurunegala, Ampara,
Moneragala, Matara, Galle, Matale and Kalutara districts; up to 50 -75 mm in Colombo,
Gampaha, Hambantota, Ratnapura, Kegalle, Kandy and Badulla districts; up to 25
– 50 mm in Nuwara Eliya district.
Above rainfall average up to 100 – 200 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu
and Trincomalee districts; up to 50 – 100 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya,
Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Galle districts; up to 25 – 50 mm in Puttalam,
Ampara, Moneragala and Matara districts;up to 10 – 25 mm Kurunegala, Hambantota
and Kalutara districts; Below rainfall
average up to 50 – 100 mm in Gampaha, Kegalle and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to
25 – 50 mm in Colombo, Ratnapura, Badulla, Kandy and Matale districts.
Weekly Monitoring:
Date | Daily Maximum Rainfall |
19th November | Up to 30 mm in Galle, Matara, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts. |
20th November | Up to 60 mm in Galle and Matara districts. |
21st November | Up to 60 mm in Galle and Kalutara districts. |
22nd November | Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee district. |
23rd November | Up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts. |
24th November | Up to 90 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts. |
25th November | Up to 70 mm in Jaffna district. |
Monthly Monitoring:
Overall,
October had been drier than normal. However, as November is the wettest month
in Sri Lanka, the rainfall was high. During
October; Above average rainfall conditions up to 4 mm in Vavuniya,
Anuradhapura, Badulla, Ampara and Moneragala districts; up to 2 mm in Mannar,
Batticaloa, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; Below average rainfall up to 8
mm in Galle, Kalutara and Colombo district; up to 6 mm in Matara, Gampaha,
Kegalle, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Jaffna districts; up to 4
mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Trincomalee districts.
Predictions
Rainfall
NOAA NCEP models:
From 26th November – 2nd
December: Total rainfall up to 135
mm in Eastern province; up to 125 mm in Northern and North central provinces;
up to 95 mm in North western province: up to 85 mm in Central, and Uva
provinces; 75 mm in Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and 55 mm in Southern
province.
From 3rd – 9th December: Total rainfall up to 95 mm in Eastern province; up to 75 mm
in Northern and North central provinces; up to 65 mm in Central, North western,
Western, Sabaragamuwa and Uva provinces and up to 55 mm in Southern province.
IRI Model Forecast:
From 24th – 29th September: Total rainfall up to 75 mm in Badulla district; up to 50 mm in Ampara, Moneragala, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna districts; and up to 25 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall slightly enhance the rainfall during 25th –
29th Nov and Significantly suppress during 30th Nov - 9th
Dec over Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: November 18, 2020
Equatorial Eastern
Pacific SST reached La Niña threshold in mid-November, and the atmospheric
variables were either ENSO-neutral or indicative of weak La Niña conditions.
Indian Ocean State
0.5 0C above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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