Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 28 November 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

•  The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 200 mm of total rainfall in northern and eastern regions of the island during 25 Nov - 2 Dec

•   Between 20 - 25 Nov: up to 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Ampara districts on the 25^th.

•  From 19 - 25 Nov: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island

•   1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
20th November	Up to 50 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 30 mm in Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Matara, Hambantota, Monaragala and Ampara districts.
21st   November	Up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya and Trincomalee districts; up to 30 mm in Anuradhapura and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Colombo, Kalutara and Ampara districts.
22nd November	Up to 70 mm in Kalutara district; up to 60 mm in Colombo and Ratnapura districts; up to 50 mm in Galle district; up to 30 mm in Kegalle, Badulla, Ampara, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 20 mm in Mannar, Gampaha,Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts; and up to 10 mm most parts of the island.
23rd November	Up to 70 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Gampaha, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Trincomalee, Matale, Kandy Puttalam and Colombo districts; and up to 20 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
24th November	Up to 70 mm in Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; up to 60 mm in Mullaitivu, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Monaragla and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Matale districts; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Ratnapura, Matara and Trincomalee districts.
25th November	Up to 120 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 70 mm in Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 60 mm in Trincomalee district; up to 50 mm in Anuradhapura, Matale and Ratnapura districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kandy and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 100-150 mm in Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; up to 75-100 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, and Galle districts; and up to 50-75 mm in Mannar, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 100-200 mm is shown for Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 50-100 mm in Polonnaruwa district; and up to 25-50 mm in Monaragala district. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, and Kandy districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kegalle, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in the rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 27^th Nov – 3^rd Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kandy, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
From 4^th – 10^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee, Monaragala, Hambantota, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Matara districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Ratnapura, Galle and Kegalle districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 27^th Nov 2^nd Dec: Total rainfall up to 200 mm is expected in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Trincomalee districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Hambantota districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall not have an impact on the rainfall in Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance in the following 10 days.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.