Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 5 December 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

•          The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 220 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 4- 9 Dec

•          Between 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 180 mm of rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Kurunegala districts on the 30^th.

•          From 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 36 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.

•          1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
26th November	Up to 30 mm in Colombo district; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Kalutara districts.
27th   November	Up to 50 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Mannar and Mullaitivu districts.
28th November	Up to 70 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla, Galle and Colombo districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
29th November	Up to 100 mm in Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara and Ratnapura districts; and up to 30 mm in rest of the island.
30th November	Up to 180 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 160 mm in Anuradhapura and Matale districts; up to 100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 70 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the island.
1st December	Up to 70 mm in Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.
2nd December	Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla, Hambantota, Matara, and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the island.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300-500 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 200-300 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; and up to 150-200 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is shown for Anuradhapura, Matale, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 100-200 mm in most parts of the island.

Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 4^th – 10^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Puttalam district.
From 11^th – 17^th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 4^th – 9^th Dec: Total rainfall up to 220 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: November 19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
1 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.