Highlights
•
The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up
to 220 mm of total rainfall in Batticaloa and Ampara during 4- 9 Dec
•
Between 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 180 mm of
rainfall was recorded in Batticaloa and Kurunegala districts on the 30th.
•
From 26 Nov 2 Dec: up to 36 km/h,
northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
•
1 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
Monitoring
Rainfall
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
Rainfall
26th November
Up to 30 mm in Colombo district; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi,
Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Kalutara
districts.
27th November
Up to 50 mm
in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura,
Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in
Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Mannar and
Mullaitivu districts.
28th
November
Up to 70 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in
Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee,
Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla, Galle and Colombo districts; up to 30 mm in
Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts; and
up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
29th
November
Up to 100 mm
in Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo
districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to
50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee,
Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara and Ratnapura districts;
and up to 30 mm in rest of the island.
30th
November
Up to 180 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 160 mm in Anuradhapura and
Matale districts; up to 100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla
and Monaragala districts; up to 70 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle,
Ratnapura, Galle and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the
island.
1st
December
Up to 70 mm
in Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to
50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in
Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla,
Monaragala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the
island.
2nd
December
Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in
Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya,
Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla,
Hambantota, Matara, and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the
island.
Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 300-500 mm in Batticaloa
and Ampara districts; up to 200-300 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Mannar,
Anuradhapura, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, and Monaragala districts; and up to 150-200
mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kalutara,
Galle and Hambantota districts. Above-average rainfall up to 200-300 mm is
shown for Anuradhapura, Matale, Trincomalee, Badulla, Monaragala, Batticaloa
and Ampara districts; and up to 100-200 mm in most parts of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During November – Above average rainfall conditions up
to 300 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 240 mm in Gampaha,
Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Kegalle districts and southern regions of Polonnaruwa
district; and up to 150 mm in Matale, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya,
Ratnapura and Matara districts. Below-average rainfall conditions up to 300 mm
were experienced by Vavuniya district; up to 150 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi,
Mullaitivu and several regions of Mannar, Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Puttalam,
Kurunegala and Polonnaruwa districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis the tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Batticaloa and Ampara districts;
and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.
Weekly Monitoring:
Date
|
Rainfall
|
26th November
|
Up to 30 mm in Colombo district; and up to 20 mm in Kilinochchi,
Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Gampaha, Ratnapura and Kalutara
districts.
|
27th November
|
Up to 50 mm
in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 30 mm in Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura,
Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in
Gampaha, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Badulla, Vavuniya, Mannar and
Mullaitivu districts.
|
28th
November
|
Up to 70 mm in Ampara and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in
Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee,
Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla, Galle and Colombo districts; up to 30 mm in
Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Gampaha, Kalutara, Matara and Hambantota districts; and
up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
|
29th
November
|
Up to 100 mm
in Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 70 mm in Kegalle, Gampaha and Colombo
districts; up to 60 mm in Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Matara districts; up to
50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee,
Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Ampara and Ratnapura districts;
and up to 30 mm in rest of the island.
|
30th
November
|
Up to 180 mm in Kurunegala district; up to 160 mm in Anuradhapura and
Matale districts; up to 100 mm in Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla
and Monaragala districts; up to 70 mm in Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Kegalle,
Ratnapura, Galle and Batticaloa districts; and up to 50 mm in rest of the
island.
|
1st
December
|
Up to 70 mm
in Mannar and Puttalam districts; up to 60 mm in Anuradhapura district; up to
50 mm in Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in
Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla,
Monaragala and Batticaloa districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the
island.
|
2nd
December
|
Up to 70 mm in Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 60 mm in
Anuradhapura district; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya,
Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Monaragala districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Badulla,
Hambantota, Matara, and Galle districts; and up to 20 mm in most parts of the
island.
|
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 4th – 10th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Puttalam district.
From 11th – 17th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
IRI Model Forecast: From 4th – 10th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Trincomalee, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Monaragala, Badulla, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Galle and Matara districts; up to 115-125 mm in Kurunegala and Gampaha districts; and up to 105-115 mm in Puttalam district.
From 11th – 17th Dec: Total rainfall more than 135 mm in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 125-135 mm in Trincomalee and Polonnaruwa districts; and up to 115-125 mm in Anuradhapura, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
From 4th – 9th Dec: Total rainfall up to 220 mm is expected in Batticaloa and Ampara districts; up to 150 mm is expected in Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Hambantota and Monaragala districts; and up to 100 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts.
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific sea state: November
19, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability, and the overall diagnosis indicates ENSO-neutral conditions. Most model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.
Indian Ocean State
1 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
1 0C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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