Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka ( 7 November 2019)

                                                      Highlights                                

• The NOAA weekly rainfall forecast predicts up to 75 mm of total rainfall in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, and Monaragala district during 6 – 11 Nov.
•  Between 29 Oct - 4 Nov: up to 210 mm of rainfall was recorded in Jaffna district on the 1st.
•  From 29 Oct - 4 Nov: up to 10 km/h, northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire island.
• 0.5 0C above-average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka

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Monitoring

Rainfall

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
29th October	Up to 70 mm in Hambantota district; up to 60 mm in Ampara and Matara districts; up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Puttalam, Monaragala, Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 30 mm in Mannar, Kalutara, Badulla, Batticaloa, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 20 mm in rest of the island.
30th October	Up to 175 mm in Kilinochchi district; up to 100 mm in Jaffna district; up to 70 mm in Mannar and Mullaitivu districts; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya district; and up to 20 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Colombo districts.
31st   October	Up to 150 mm in Jaffna district; up to 60 mm in Mannar district; up to 30 mm in Puttalam and Anuradhapura districts; and up to 20 mm in Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts.
1st November	Up to 210 mm in Jaffna districts; up to 50 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu and Mannar districts; and up to 20 mm Monaragala district.
2nd November	Up to 100 mm in Gampaha district; up to 70 mm in Kegalle district; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 30 mm in Matale, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Mannar, Anuradhapura and Nuwara Eliya districts.
3rd November	Up to 60 mm in Colombo and Badulla districts; up to 50 mm in Puttalam, Gampaha, Kalutara and Ampara districts; up to 30 mm in Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratanapura, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; and up to 20 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
4th November	Up to 20 mm in Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Kandy, Badulla and Monaragala districts.

Total Rainfall for the Past Week: The RFE 2.0 tool shows total up to 70-100 mm in Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalle, Matara, Ratnapura and Hambantota districts; up to 50-75 mm in Jaffna, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Ampara districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale and Batticaloa districts. Above average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Jaffna and Kilinochchi districts; and up to 25-50 mm in Vavuniya, Mannar, Puttalam, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts. Below-average rainfall up to 50-100 mm is shown for Trincomalee, Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts; up to 25-50 mm in Mullaitivu, Matale, Polonnaruwa and Ampra districts; and up to 10-25 mm in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During October – Above average rainfall conditions up to 360 mm were experienced by Kilinochchi, Ratnapura, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 300 mm in Jaffna district; and up to 240 mm in rest of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows up to 750 mm were experienced by Colombo and Ratnapura districts; and up to 500 mm in most parts of the island.

Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 

NOAA NCEP models: 

IMD NCMWRF Forecast:
From 6^th – 12^th Nov: Total rainfall more than 85 mm in Ratnapura and Galle districts; up to 65-75 mm in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalle, Matara and Hambantota districts; and up to 55-65 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo, and Kalutara districts.
From 13^th – 19^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 115 mm in Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts; up to 85-95 mm Kegalle, Puttalam, Gampaha, and Kurunegala districts; and up to 75-85 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Matale, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts.

IRI Model Forecast: 
From 6^th – 11^th Nov: Total rainfall up to 75 mm is expected in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Monaragala districts; and up to 50 mm in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Hambantota, Ampara, Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts.

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific sea state: October 18, 2019
SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter, and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean State
0.5 ⁰C above-average sea surface the temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.