- The WRF model predicts up to 65 mm of rainfall in Colombo and Puttalam districts on 6th May.
- Between 26 Apr- 2 May: highest rainfalls of 100 mm were recorded on the 1st in Anuradhapura districts.
- From 23-29 Apr: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while northern half of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 25 Apr-1 May: up to 14 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the southern regions; and speeds less than 7 km/h in the northern and central regions of the island.
- 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On April 26th, several regions of Badulla and Monaragala districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island during 27th and 28th. On the 29th several regions of Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Badulla districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 30th Kumana region of Hambantota district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Galge region of Monaragala district up to 20 mm. On May 1st, Anuradhapura district received up to 100 mm of rainfall, Puttalam district up to 50 mm; Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, and Trincomalee and several regions of Kurunegala district received up to 20 mm. On the 2nd Matale district received up to 80 mm of rainfall; Kurunegala district up to 60 mm; Anuradhapura district up to 30 mm; and Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 100 mm Anuradhapura district; up to 75 mm in Matale district; up to 50 mm in Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Badulla districts; and up to 25 mm Trincomalee, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts. It shows above average rainfall of 50-100 mm for Anuradhapura district; and below average rainfall of 50-100 mm for Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-50 for Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Galle, Matara, Badulla, Monaragala, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa and Ampara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During April - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island. Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and Kandy districts received up to 210 mm below average rainfall; and many parts of the island received up to 150 mm. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kegalla, Galle and Matara districts amounted to 210 mm/month; and 150 mm/month for Puttalam, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to ~100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to ~75 mm Ampara, Puttalam and Mannar districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 3rd – 9th May: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Ratnapura district; between 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Kegalla, Gampaha and Matara districts; between 5-15 mm in North, Uwa provinces and Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Hambantota districts.
From 10th -16th May: Total rainfall between 25-35 mm in Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 15-25 mm in Gampaha and Kegalla districts; between 5-15 mm in Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala and Hambantota districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
6th May: Up to 65 mm of rainfall in Colombo and Puttalam districts; up to 36 of rainfall in Gampaha, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Matale; up to 8mm of rainfall in Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara; up to 3mm of rainfall in Galle, Hambantota and Nuwara Eliya districts.
7th May: Up to 36mm of rainfall in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura and Nuwara Eliya districts; up to 8mm of rainfall in Mullaitivu, Mannar, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Kandy, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kegalla, Badulla and Monaragala districts; up to 3mm of rainfall in Kilinochchi, Batticaloa, Galle, Matara and Hambantota districts.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : April 20, 2017
By mid-April 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. Across the western and central Pacific, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall, and winds remains suggestive of La Nina conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Nino into the summer and fall of 2017.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka .
MJO STATE : MJO shall suppress the rainfall in Sri Lanka for the upcoming 5 days and shall not have a significant impact on rainfall for the following 5 days. MJO shall enhance the rainfall for the next 5 days.
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