- The WRF model predicts up to 36 mm of rainfall in Western region of the country on 18th and 19th of May.
- Between 8-14 May: highest rainfalls of 160 mm were recorded on the 12th in Mullaitivu district.
- From 7-13 May: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while northern and northeastern regions of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 8-14 May: up to 18 km/h, southwesterly winds were experienced by the southern regions; and speeds less than 11 km/h in the northern and central regions of the island.
- 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On May 10th, Anuradhapura, Kandy, Badulla districts received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Matale, Kurunegala and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 30 mm; Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 11th Hambantota district received up to 40 mm of rainfall; Matale district up to 30 mm; Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara. Ratnapura and Matara districts up to 20mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 12th Mullaitivu district received up to 160 mm of rainfall; Vavuniya district up to 90 mm; Anuradhapura district up to 60 mm; Mannar, Matale, Kegalla, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala districts and northern region of Trincomalee district up to 30 mm; and Kilinochchi and Colombo districts up to 20 mm. On the 13th Polonnaruwa district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Matale and Anuradhapura districts up to 30 mm; and Badulla, Monaragala and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm. On the 14th Ratnapura district received up to 60 mm of rainfall; Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts up to 30 mm; and Gampaha, Colombo and Trincomalee districts up to 20 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 200 mm in Mullaitivu district; up to 100 mm in Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Matale, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts; up to 75 mm in Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala, Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Kalutara and Colombo districts; and up to 50 mm Ampara and Trincomalee districts. It shows above average rainfall of 100-200 mm for Mullaitivu and Vavuniya districts; and 50-100 mm for Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-50 for most parts of the island.
Monthly Monitoring: During April - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island. Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and Kandy districts received up to 210 mm below average rainfall; and many parts of the island received up to 150 mm. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kegalla, Galle and Matara districts amounted to 210 mm/month; and 150 mm/month for Puttalam, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to ~100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to ~75 mm Ampara, Puttalam and Mannar districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 16th – 22nd May: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Colombo, Kegalle and Ratnapura districts; between 25-35 mm in Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Matara districts. Between 15-25 mm in Puttalam, Mannar, Vavuniya, Polonnaruwa, Matale, and Hambantota districts. Between 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Badulla and Monaragala districts.
From 22nd -29th May: Total rainfall between 35-45 mm in Colombo, Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 25-35 mm in Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Kegalla, and Hambantota districts; between 15-25 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya Badulla and Monaragala districts; between 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa and Matale districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
18th May: Up to 36 mm of rainfall Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts.
19th May: Up to 36 mm of rainfall Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya, Ratnapura and Matara districts.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : May 11, 2017
By mid-May 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Niño into the summer and fall of 2017.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC above average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall in Sri Lanka.
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