- The WRF model predicts up to 125 mm of rainfall in Gampaha and Puttalam districts on 12th May.
- Between 3-9 May: highest rainfalls of 120 mm were recorded on the 7th in Anuradhapura districts.
- From 30 Apr-6 May: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while northern half of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 2-8 May: up to 11 km/h, Southeasterly winds were experienced by the eastern coastal regions; and speeds less than 7 km/h in rest of the island.
- Average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: On May 3rd, Ratnapura district received up to 15 mm of rainfall; and several regions of Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Kandy, Kegalla, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 4th Vavuniya, Anuradhapura and Ratnapura districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On the 5th several regions of Jaffna, Mannar and Kurunegala districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. On the 6th Anuradhapura district received up to 70 mm of rainfall; Mannar and Kurunegala districts up to 50 mm; Vavuniya and Puttalam districts up to 30 mm; Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Kalutara, Kegalla and Ratnapura districts up to 20 mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm. On the 7th Anuradhapura district received up to 120 mm of rainfall; Puttalam district up to 100 mm; Kurunegala and Matale district up to 90 mm; Kilinochchi district up to 50 mm; Mannar, Polonnaruwa, and Gampaha districts up to 40 mm; Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Badulla, Ampara, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts up to 30 mm; and Trincomalee, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya districts up to 20 mm. On the 8th Ratnapura district received up to 90 mm of rainfall; Nuwara Eliya district up to 40 mm; Kegall, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara and Galle districts up to 30 mm; and Matara, Kandy. Badulla and Monaragala districts up to 20 mm. On the 9th Kandy district received up to 30 mm of rainfall; Polonnaruwa, Matale, Ampara, Badulla, Monaragala, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla. Ratnapura and Kalutara districts up to 20 mm; and most parts of the island up to 10 mm.
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 100 mm in Anuradhapura, Puttalam, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts; up to 75 mm in Vavuniya, Matale, Polonnaruwa,Colombo, Kalutara, Nuwara Eliya and Kegalla districts; and up to 50 mm in Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara, Galle and Matara districts. It shows above average rainfall of 100-200 mm for Anuradhapura and Puttalam districts; and up to 50-100 mm for Mannar, Kurunegala,Gampaha and Ratnapura districts; and up to 25-50 for Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kalutara districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During April - below average rainfall conditions were experienced in the entire island. Matale, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura and Kandy districts received up to 210 mm below average rainfall; and many parts of the island received up to 150 mm. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Gampaha, Colombo, Ratnapura, Kegalla, Galle and Matara districts amounted to 210 mm/month; and 150 mm/month for Puttalam, Kandy, Matale, Badulla, Hambantota and Monaragala districts. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~200 mm of total rainfall in Anuradhapura, Gampaha, Colombo, Kalutara, Galle and Ratnapura districts; up to ~100 mm in Matale, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kurunegala and Hambantota districts; and up to ~75 mm Ampara, Puttalam and Mannar districts.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 10th -16th May: Total rainfall between 45-55 mm in Ratnapura and Matara districts; between 35-45 mm in Colombo and Hambantota districts; between 25-35 mm in Gampaha, Kegalla, Kady, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala and Badulla; between 15-25 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Matale and Ampara districts; between 5-15 mm in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, trincomalee, Batticaloa.
From 17th – 23rd May: Total rainfall between 75-85 mm in Matara, Hambantota and Ratnapura districts; between 65-75 mm in Kegalla, Nuwara Eliya and Monaragala districts; between 55-65 mm in Kandy and Badulla districts; between 45-55 mm in Gampaha, Kurunegala, Matale, Ampara and Anuradhapura districts; 35-45 mm in Puttalam Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffana districts.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
11th May: Up to 65 mm of rainfall in Puttalam, Gampaha and Polonnaruwa districts; up to 36 mm of rainfall in Kurunegala, Kegalla, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Galle, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Matale, Kandy, Badulla, Monaragala, Ampara and Hambantota districts; up to 3 mm of rainfall in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Mannar, Vavuniya districts.
12th May: Up to 125 mm of rainfall inGampaha and Batticaloa districts; up to 65 mm of rainfall in Kurunegala, Colombo, Kalutara, Ratnapura, Ampara, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa, Trincomalee and Badulla districts; up to 36 mm of rainfall in Galle, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, Kegalla, Kandy and Monaragala districts; up to 8 mm of rainfall in Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Matale districts and Northern province.
Seasonal Prediction: Apr to Jun: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole country. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the whole of the island of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : April 20, 2017
By mid-April 2017, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, with above-average SSTs present in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and near-average SSTs across the central and east-central part of the basin. Across the western and central Pacific, the pattern of cloudiness, rainfall, and winds remains suggestive of La Nina conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates increasing chances of El Nino into the summer and fall of 2017.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the western seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall not have a significant impact on rainfall for the next 5 days and shall enhance the rainfall in the following 10 days.
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