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Friday, February 17, 2017

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 16, February 2017


  •  The NOAA NCEP model predicts up to 25 mm of total rainfall in the Southern province during 15th–21st February. 
  •  Between 7-13 Feb: highest rainfall of 50 mm was recorded in Kilinochchi district on the 13th.
  •  From 5-11 Feb: minimum temperature of 15  OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35  OC.
  •  From 7-13 Feb: up to 18 km/h northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire Island.

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Weekly Monitoring: No rainfalls were recorded within the island during the period February 7th – 12th. On the 13th, Kilinochchi district and Ratmale region near the district border of Anuradhapura and Trincomalee received up to 50 mm of rainfall; and Jaffna and Mullaitivu districts up to 30 mm.

Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 100 mm for Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts; up to 75 mm in Matale, Kandy and Badulla districts; and up to 50 mm in Polonnaruwa, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, Monaragala, Colombo and Kalutara districts; and up to 25 mm in rest of the districts. It shows above average rainfall of 50-100 mm for Anuradhapura, Matale, Badulla and Vavuniya districts; and 25-50 mm for Polonnaruwa and Monaragala districts; and below average rainfall of 10-25 mm in Batticaloa, Kurunegala, Puttalam and Galle districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, and several regions of Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Puttalam, Matara and Hambantota districts. These regions received up to 60 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa, Ampara and Badulla districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and up to 90 mm below average rainfall in many parts of the island. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Galle, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Ratnapura and Matale districts; and up to ~75 mm for many parts of the island.


14-day prediction:
From 15th – 21st Feb: Up to 25 mm rainfall in Southern province.
From 22nd – 28th Feb: Up to 15 mm rainfall in Northern Province.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
 2nd Feb: Rainfall up to 7.6 mm in Galle districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaittivu, Vavuniya, Mannar and Trincomalee districts.
 3rd Feb: Rainfall up to 2.5 mm in Vavuniya, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts.

Seasonal Prediction: March to May: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole island. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the southern region and 60-70% likelihood in the northern region of being in the above-normal tercile.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : February 08, 2017
During early February 2017 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was between 0 and -0.5C, in the cool ENSO-neutral range. Some of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific still show a weak La Niña pattern, while others have weakened to a neutral condition. The upper and lower atmospheric winds only weakly suggest a strengthened Walker circulation, but the pattern of cloudiness and rainfall remains suggestive of La Niña. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs, no longer at the threshold of La Niña, are likely to remain neutral through May 2017, with a chance of El Niño development later in the year.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE : Average sea surface temperature was observed in the seas around Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE : MJO shall heavily suppress the rainfall of Sri Lanka in the next 5 days and shall enhance the rainfall in the following 10 days.

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