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Thursday, February 2, 2017

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 02, February 2017


  •  The WRF model predicts up to 3.5 mm of rainfall in Northern and Eastern coastal regions of Sri Lanka on the 2nd and 3rd.  
  •  Between 25-31 Jan: highest rainfall of 120 mm was recorded in Hambantota district on the 26th.
  •  From 22-28 Jan: minimum temperature of 15  OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while North Central, Wayamba, Western and Southern Provinces of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35  OC.
  •  From 24-30 Jan: up to 25 km/h easterly winds were experienced by the entire Island.

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Weekly Monitoring: On 25th Polonnaruwa, Matale, Anuradhapura districts and Kankasanturai region of Jaffna district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; several regions of Kurunegala, Monaragala and Ampara districts up to 20 mm; and adjacent northern and south western sea received up to 140 mm of rainfall. On the 26th coastal regions of Hambantota district received up to 120 mm of rainfall; Galle and Matara districts up to 90 mm; Batticaloa district up to 70 mm; Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Badulla up to 50 mm; Anuradhapura, Kalutara, Matale and Ratnapura up to 40 mm; Mannar, Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Trincomalee, Colombo and Kandy districts up to 30 mm; and rest of the districts up to 20 mm. On 27th Mannar district received up to 50 mm of rainfall; Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu, Anuradhapura and Vavuniya districts up to 30 mm; Trincomalee district up to 20 mm; and adjacent north eastern sea received up to 80 mm. On 28th Kalutara, Ratnapura and Matara districts received up to 30 mm of rainfall; and Kuranegala and Matale districts received up to 20 mm of rainfall. On 29th Gampaha, Colombo and Kegalla districts received up to 10 mm of rainfall. No significant rainfalls were recorded during the period 30th-31st.

Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows total rainfall up to 75 mm for Anuradhapura, Mannar, Polonnaruwa, Ampara Galle, Hambantota and Matara districts; up to 50 mm of rainfall Mullaitivu, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Vavuniya, Matale, Ratnapura, Badulla, Monaragala, Monaragala, and Kalutara districts; and up to 25 mm in rest of the island. It shows above average rainfall 100-200 mm for Hambantota district; and 50-100 mm for Galle district; and 25-50 mm in Mannar, Vavuniya, Ampara, Batticaloa, Matara Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts.

Monthly Monitoring: During January - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, and several regions of Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Puttalam, Matara and Hambantota districts. These regions received up to 60 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa, Ampara and Badulla districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and up to 90 mm below average rainfall in many parts of the island. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Galle, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Ratnapura and Matale districts; and up to ~75 mm for many parts of the island.


14-day prediction:
From 31st Jan – 7th Feb: No rainfall.
From 8th – 14th Feb : No rainfall.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
 2nd Feb: Rainfall up to 7.6 mm in Galle districts; and up to 2.5 mm in Kilinochchi, Mullaittivu, Vavuniya, Mannar and Trincomalee districts.
 3rd Feb: Rainfall up to 2.5 mm in Vavuniya, Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts.

Seasonal Prediction: February to April: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole island. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 19, 2017
During mid-January 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Many of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific also remain consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although some have become only weakly so. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have continued to be weakly suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall remain suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs, now near the threshold of La Niña, is in the process of dissipating to neutral levels by February.

INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern seas of Sri Lanka.

MJO STATE : MJO shall enhance the rainfall of Sri Lanka in next 5 days and shall not have a significant impact on the rainfall in the following 10 days.

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