- The WRF model predicts up to 35.6 mm of rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts on the 10th.
- Between 1-7 Feb: no rainfalls were recorded in any part of the island.
- From 29 Jan-4 Feb: minimum temperature of 15 OC was recorded from Nuwara Eliya district while most parts of the island recorded a maximum temperature between 30-35 OC.
- From 31 Jan-6 Feb: up to 14 km/h northeasterly winds were experienced by the entire Island.
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Summary
Monitoring
Weekly Monitoring: : No rainfalls were recorded within the island during the period February 1st - 7th
Total Rainfall for past week : The RFE 2.0 tool shows below average rainfall 50-100 mm for Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Polonnaruwa and Ampara districts; 25-50 mm for Mullaitivu, Vavuniya, Anuradhapura, Kurunegala, Matale, Kandy, Nuwar Eliya, Badulla, Monaragala, Kegalla, Gamapha, Colombo, Kalutara and Ratnapura districts; and 10-25 mm in rest of the districts.
Monthly Monitoring: During January - above average rainfall conditions were experienced in Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, and several regions of Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Matale, Puttalam, Matara and Hambantota districts. These regions received up to 60 mm above average rainfall. Batticaloa, Ampara and Badulla districts received up to 150 mm below average rainfall; and up to 90 mm below average rainfall in many parts of the island. Monthly average rainfall for Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Ampara, Ratnapura, Galle, Matara and Hambantota amounted to 150 mm/month; and 90 mm/month for many parts of the island. The CPC Unified Precipitation Analysis tool shows ~100 mm of total rainfall in Mannar, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Galle, Batticaloa, Ampara, Hambantota, Ratnapura and Matale districts; and up to ~75 mm for many parts of the island.
Predictions
14-day prediction:
NOAA NCEP Models:
From 8th – 14th Feb: No rainfall.
From 15th – 21st Feb: Up to 45 mm rainfall in Southern province.
IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast:
10th Feb: Rainfall up to 35.6 mm of rainfall in Nuwara Eliya and Ratnapura districts and up to 7.6 mm of rainfall in Badulla, Kandy, Kegalle, Kalutara, Galle and Matara districts.
11th Feb: Rainfall up to 35.6 mm of rainfall in Nuwara Eliya district and up to 7.6 mm of rainfall in Badulla, Kandy, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Matara districts.
Seasonal Prediction: February to April: the total 3-month precipitation shall be climatological for the whole island. The 3-month temperature has more than 70-80% likelihood in the entire country of being in the above-normal tercile.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
PACIFIC SEAS STATE : January 19, 2017
During mid-January 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Many of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific also remain consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although some have become only weakly so. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have continued to be weakly suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall remain suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs, now near the threshold of La Niña, is in the process of dissipating to neutral levels by February.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE : 0.5 OC below average sea surface temperature was observed in the northern and northeastern seas of Sri Lanka.
MJO STATE : MJO shall heavily suppress the rainfall of Sri Lanka.
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