Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 24 July, 2014

Highlights

Monitoring and Prediction
Rainfall observed in Sri Lanka is dwindling. Less than 20 mm of rainfall was observed during 16th- 22nd of July. No significant rainfall events are predicted for the next two weeks. The sea surface temperature anomaly remained neutral in the entire last month.

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Summary

Monitoring


Weekly Monitoring:: During 16th- 22nd July significant rainfall was only observed on the 22nd. Rainfall up to 20 mm was observed in Kandy, Nuwara Eliya and Kurunegala districts on this day.


Monthly Monitoring:The southwest monsoon was active during the month of June. Due to this the south western region received higher rainfall than rest of the country. The entire southern half of the island received rainfall during this month but except for Colombo, Kaluthara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, western areas of Nuwara-Eliya and southern areas of Gampaha districts, rainfall received in the country was below-average. In the above mentioned districts up to 200 mm of excess rainfall, compared to the average rainfall received in the past during June, was observed.

Predictions

14-day prediction:Significant rainfall is not expected during the next two weeks.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model Galle to Puttalam districts shall receive rainfall up to 35 mm on the 25th and 26th of July while IRI models predict total rainfall up to 25 mm during 23rd- 28th of July.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on July 2014; for August 2014 to October 2014, the precipitation shall be climatological while there is a 70% chance that temperature shall be above normal.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE July 17, 2014 :During June through early-July the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle or late portion of northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :A neutral sea surface temperature anomaly was observed around Sri Lanka
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 6 in the Western Pacific and this shall lead to suppressed rainfall conditions in Sri Lanka