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Friday, July 11, 2014

Weekly Hydro-meteorological Report, 10 July, 2014


Monitoring and Prediction
Less rainfall compared to the previous week was observed during 2nd – 8th July 2014. Sea around the country shows a neutral sea surface temperature anomaly. Heavy rainfall events are not expected during the next 5 day period.

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Weekly Monitoring:: On the 2nd of July no rainfall was observed in the country. Thereafter rainfall was observed in coastal areas around Trincomalee on the 3rd and area around Ratnapura on the 4th while the rest of the country was dry during these two days. During the next two days the entire country received rainfall with more rain in northern parts of the island. Highest rainfall recorded during this week (2nd to 8th July) was observed in Monaragala district on the 6th. Up to 40 mm rainfall was observed in this area. Rainfall decreased on the 7th with dry conditions observed in most parts of the country. Central and Ratnapura regions received rainfall on the 8th. During this period the sea North-east of the country received a high amount of rainfall.

Monthly Monitoring:The southwest monsoon was active during the month of June. Due to this the south western region received higher rainfall than rest of the country. The entire southern half of the island received rainfall during this month but except for Colombo, Kaluthara, Galle, Matara, Ratnapura, Kegalle, western areas of Nuwara-Eliya and southern areas of Gampaha districts, rainfall received in the country was below-average. In the above mentioned districts up to 200 mm of excess rainfall, compared to the average rainfall received in the past during June, was observed.


14-day prediction:More rainfall is expected (up to 55 mm) during the fortnight starting from 8th July 2014.

IMD WRF Model Forecast & IRI forecast: According to the IMD WRF model the western half of the country shall receive rainfall on the 11th while highest rainfall of 65 mm is expected in Ratnapura. Rainfall shall decrease on the 12th. IRI models predict rainfall up to 75 mm in the South western regions of Sri Lanka during 9th -14th of July. No extreme rainfall is expected during this period.

Seasonal Prediction:As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast issued on June 2014; for July 2014 to September 2014, the precipitation shall be climatological while there is a 70% chance that temperature shall be above normal.

PACIFIC SEAS STATE June 19, 2014 :During May through mid-June the observed ENSO conditions remained near the borderline of a weak El Niño condition in the ocean, but the atmosphere so far has shown little involvement. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer.
INDIAN OCEAN STATE :A neutral sea surface temperature anomaly was observed around Sri Lanka
MJO STATE :MJO is at phase 4 in the maritime continent and shall enhance precipitation slightly.

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