Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka ( 19 July 2024)

 

Highlights   

       

 • During 17 - 23 July, high likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western, Southern, North Western provinces; light to moderate rainfall (12.5 -25 mm) is predicted for the Central province and below 15 mm rainfall is predicted for the rest.

 • On average, 3.3 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the   Western plains (8.2 mm) and hills (10.8 mm). On average, 13.8 mm was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Norton (Nuwara Eliya District) received the highest rainfall (113.2 mm). Highest daily rainfall was in Norton (Nuwara Eliya District) on 14 July (113.2 mm).

 • From 9 Jul - 15 Jul, winds at 850mb (1.5km) north-westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 18 Jul - 24 Jul, winds are predicted to be north-westerly and westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s.  

 • Average land surface temperature was 31.5ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above average.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 17^th July - 23^rd July:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 35 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
• 25 mm - Southern, North Western
• 15 mm - Central
• ≤ 5 mm - North Central, Northern, Eastern, Uva

From 24^th July - 30^th July:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 55 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa
• 45 mm - Southern
• 35 mm - Central 
• 25 mm - Uva
• ≤ 15 mm - Northern, North Central, Eastern, Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be near neutral for the rainfall during 17-26 July and slightly suppress the rainfall during 27^th -31^st July for Sri Lanka.

           

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: July 15, 2024 

ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the western and west-central Pacific, near average in the east-central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to develop during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average from 25 June to 1 July 2024.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there has been heavy rainfall over the following area: Norton (Nuwara Eliya District)

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (11 July - 18 July) = 3.3 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 78.8 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	0.0	33.0	26.8
Eastern hills	1.0	28.2	19.6
Eastern plains	0.3	35.0	26.2
Western hills	10.8	26.4	20.5
Western plains	8.2	30.9	25.7
Southern plains	1.2	32.6	25.2

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
All SL	3.3	78.8	0.0
Hydro catchment	13.8	113.2	0.0

Wind: Westerly and North Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern province driven by the warm SSTs.

                                                    

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (17 July - 23 July), moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa, Western provinces and light to moderate rainfall (12.5 - 25 mm) is predicted for the Southern, Central and North Western province and less rainfall is predicted for the rest.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the Northern, Eastern, North Central, and Uva provinces during 19 July - 26 July.

Teleconnections: MJO shall be near neutral for the rainfall during 17 July - 26 July and slightly suppress the rainfall during 27 July - 31 July for Sri Lanka.          

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the July-August-September, 2024 season shows a 40 - 50% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the country.