Highlights
• During
10 - 16 July, high likelihood of moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted
for the Sabaragamuwa,
Western, Southern, and North Western provinces; light to
moderate rainfall (12.5 -25 mm) is predicted for the Central province; below 10
mm rainfall is predicted for the rest.
• On average, 5.3 mm was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in
the Eastern hills (8.1 mm), Western
plains (13.5 mm) and hills (7.7 mm). On average, 6.6 mm was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Kukule
Ganga received the highest rainfall (80 mm). Highest daily rainfall was in Kalatuwawa (Rathnapura District) on 27
June (73.0 mm).
• From 2 Jul - 8 Jul, winds at 850mb (1.5km)
north westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s. From 11 Jul - 17 Jul, winds are predicted to
be north westerly and westerly, reaching up to 15 m/s.
• Average
land surface temperature was 31ºC in
the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of 1-3 ºC. Eastern plains was warmest followed by
Northern and Southern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was
0.25 - 1.5ºC above average.
Predictions
Rainfall
14-day prediction:NOAA NCEP models:
From 10th July - 16th July:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 45 mm - Sabaragamuwa, Western
- 35 mm - Southern, North Western
- 25 mm - Central
- ≤ 10 mm - North Central, Northern, Eastern, Uva
From 17th July - 23rd July:
Total rainfall by Provinces
- 35 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa
- 25 mm - Southern
- 15 mm - Central, North Western
- ≤ 5 mm - Northern, North Central, Eastern, Uva
MJO based OLR predictions:
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall be near neutral for the
rainfall during 10th - 19th July for Sri Lanka.
Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)
Pacific Sea Sate: July 8, 2024
ENSO-neutral conditions
are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in
the west-central Pacific Ocean, near average in the east-central Pacific Ocean,
and below average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña is favored to
develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January).
Indian Sea Sate
Sea surface temperature around Sri
Lanka was 1.0℃
above
average from 18th to 24th
June 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: :During the last two weeks, there has been heavy rainfall over
the following area: Kalatuwawa (Rathnapura District)
Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (4 July - 10 July) = 5.3 mm
Maximum Daily Rainfall: 86.9 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Average temperature for last 8
days (ºC) |
|
Maximum |
Minimum |
||
Northern
plains |
0.6 |
30.5 |
26.7 |
Eastern hills |
8.1 |
26.8 |
18.5 |
Eastern
plains |
2.7 |
31.6 |
25.5 |
Western
hills |
7.7 |
28.4 |
20.0 |
Western
plains |
13.5 |
31.4 |
25.2 |
Southern
plains |
1.6 |
31.5 |
25.2 |
Region |
Average rainfall for last 8 days
(mm) |
Daily maximum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
Daily minimum rainfall for last 8
days (mm) |
All SL |
5.3 |
86.9 |
0.0 |
Hydro catchment |
6.6 |
80.0 |
0.0 |
Wind: Westerly and North Westerly
winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature
anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Central, Sabaragamuwa
and Western provinces driven by the warm SSTs.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (10 July
- 16 July), moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Sabaragamuwa,
Western, Southern, and North Western provinces and light to moderate rainfall (12.5 - 25 mm) is predicted for the Central
province and less rainfall is predicted for the rest.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for the
Northern, Eastern, North Central, and Uva provinces and below normal for some
parts of Central province during 12 July - 19 July.
Teleconnections: MJO shall be near neutral for the rainfall from
10th - 19th July for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation
forecast for the July-August-September, 2024 season shows a 45 - 50% or more
tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the country.
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