Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (9 February 2024)

                       

Highlights          

 • High likelihood of   fairly heavy rainfall (50 - 100 mm) is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces and less rainfall  (≤ 35 mm) is predicted for the rest during 7 - 13 Feb.

 • Rainfall on 31 Jan reached peak (126 mm) at Deniyaya (SP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 3.0 mm and hydro catchment was 6.9 mm.

 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 29 Jan - 4 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted north easterly from 8 - 14 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s.

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was  in Katunayake (35.8ºC) and Kurunegala (34.9ºC).

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 7th February - 13th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 55 mm - Uva
• 35 mm - Northern, Southern, North Central, Central
• 15 mm - Sabaragamuwa, North Western
• ≤ 5 mm - Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 7^th - 21^st February for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 5, 2024 

The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 5th Feb - thus a strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter. 

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above normal to the country in 16^th - 22^nd January 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following area: Deniyaya

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (31^st January - 7^th February) = 3.0 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 41.4 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	1.3	31.5	23.7
Eastern hills	3.0	26.3	16.6
Eastern plains	3.8	31.1	23.9
Western hills	8.4	28.8	18.3
Western plains	1.7	32.6	24.0
Southern plains	0.7	32.4	23.9

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	6.9	125.0	0.0

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for the country driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (7^th February - 13^th February), fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for the Eastern and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the Western, North Western, North Central, and Southern provinces during 8^th - 14^th February.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

MJO shall significantly suppress the rainfall during 7^th - 21^st February for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.