Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (16 February 2024)

                        

Highlights          

 • High likelihood of   moderate rainfall (25 - 50 mm) is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, Uva provinces and less rainfall (≤ 15 mm) is predicted for the rest during        14 - 20 Feb.

 • Rainfall on 5 Feb reached peak (64.5 mm) at Kahaduwa (SP). During the last week, average daily rainfall was 0.4 mm and hydro catchment was 0.7 mm.

 • Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) were north easterly from 5 - 11 Feb reaching up to 10 m/s. Winds at 850mb (1.5 km) are predicted easterly from 15 - 21 Feb reaching up to 5 m/s.

 • Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5 - 1.5ºC above normal. Strong EL Nino and positive Indian ocean dipole patterns sustained. Maximum daily temperature was in Katunayake & Colombo (35.5ºC).

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 14th February - 20th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

•  45 mm - Eastern
•  35 mm - Northern
•  25 mm - Uva
•  15 mm - Central, Southern, North Central
• ≤ 5 mm - Western, Sabaragamuwa, North Western

From 21st February - 27th February:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 55 mm - Eastern
• 45 mm - Northern
• 25 mm - Uva, Central, Southern
• ≤ 15 mm - Sabaragamuwa, North Western, North Central, Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 14^th - 18^th February, slightly suppress the rainfall during 19^th- 23^rd February, and near neutral the rainfall during 24^th - 28^th February for Sri Lanka.

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: February 8, 2024 

The SST Anomalies for the NINO3.4 region shows a +1.7 ºC on the week ending 8^th Feb - thus a strong El Nino is sustained. Consensus of models predict a continuation of the El Niño event until May 2024 before weakening thereafter.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 0.5℃ above normal to the country in 23^rd - 29^th January 2024. A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: : During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following area:  Kahaduwa

Daily Average Rainfall in the Met stations for previous week of (7^th February - 14^th February) = 0.4 mm

Maximum Daily Rainfall: 10.2 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Average temperature for last 8 days (ºC)
		Maximum	Minimum
Northern plains	0.0	31.6	23.6
Eastern hills	0.6	25.9	16.8
Eastern plains	0.6	31.1	24.3
Western hills	0.4	28.2	18.6
Western plains	0.2	33.5	23.8
Southern plains	0.9	32.9	23.9

Region	Average rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily maximum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)	Daily minimum rainfall for last 8 days (mm)
Hydro catchment	0.7	16.8	0.0

Wind: North easterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were above normal for some parts of the Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva, Eastern, and Northern provinces of the country driven by the warm SST’s.       

  

Predictions

Rainfall: During the next week (14^th February - 20^th February), moderate rainfall is predicted for the Eastern, Northern, and Uva provinces and less rainfall is predicted for the rest of the country.

Temperatures: The temperature will remain above normal for some parts of the North Western, Western, Southern, Northern, and North Central provinces during 15^th - 21^st February.

Teleconnections: A positive Dipole Mode has set in across the Indian Ocean since 8^th of June.

MJO shall moderately suppress the rainfall during 14^th - 18^th February, slightly suppress the rainfall during 19^th- 23^rd February, and near neutral the rainfall during 24^th - 28^th February for Sri Lanka.

Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the February-March-April, 2024 season shows near normal precipitation.